De financiële markten nemen de centrale banken steeds meer werk uit handen. Oplopende reële rentes sturen de leenkosten in grote economieën omhoog, zonder dat hier aanpassingen in de beleidsrentes voor nodig waren.

“Wat de VS betreft, zal het inflatiecijfer van deze week bepalend worden voor de vraag of deze autonome verkrapping volstaat om de Fed dit jaar aan de zijlijn te houden, of dat beleidsmakers zelf opnieuw in actie moeten komen”, stelt Laura Cooper, Global Investment Strategist van Nuveen.

Amerikaanse obligatierentes zijn opgelopen door zorgen over de inflatie en begroting, en een minder voorspelbaar monetair pad. Volgens de strateeg is het effect op de financiële condities daarvan vergelijkbaar met een renteverhoging. “Dat is een belangrijke reden waarom de Fed de rente ongemoeid kon laten, terwijl de deur naar verdere verkrapping openblijft als de macro-economische data daartoe nopen.”

Voor het eerstvolgende rentebesluit in september wordt het inflatierapport over juli erg belangrijk. Cooper: “De markt rekent erop dat de inflatie terugzakt naar 2,5% en de komende maanden verder daalt. Toch draait het woensdag niet alleen om het uiteindelijke percentage. Minstens zo cruciaal is of het verschil tussen de CPI en de door de Fed geprefereerde kern-PCE-inflatie begint te krimpen.”

Nog een maand van afkoelende prijzen versterkt het narratief dat de markt al een groot deel van de benodigde verkrapping heeft geleverd. Blijft de inflatie hardnekkig hoog, dan vervalt die vlieger. “Onze verwachting dat de Fed de rentepauze handhaaft, leunt op een over het algemeen stabiele arbeidsmarkt, gecombineerd met een gestage, zij het geleidelijke, daling van de onderliggende inflatiedruk.”

Hieronder het volledige commentaar van Cooper.

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Find here the latest edition of the Global Macro Musings by Laura Cooper, Global Investment Strategist and Head of Macro Credit at Nuveen ($1.4T AUM*).

Key messages:

• Rising real yields have pushed borrowing costs higher without policy rate changes, having much the same effect on financial conditions as a rate hike; this is one reason the Fed has been able to leave rates unchanged. Our expectation that the Fed remains on hold rests on a broadly stable labour market alongside continued, albeit gradual, progress on inflation.
• The July CPI report will help make the case for or against a September rate hike – not just whether it surprises by a tenth either way, but whether the divergence between CPI and the Fed’s preferred core PCE gauge begins to narrow, and whether higher yields continue to reflect rising real yields while inflation expectations remain well anchored.
• Front-end yields have room to grind lower if the Fed’s patience is validated, while long-end yields are likely to stay under pressure unless fiscal concerns fade – that argues for curve steepeners over an outright duration view.

Markets Are Already Tightening for the Fed

Markets are increasingly doing central banks’ work for them. Rising real yields have pushed borrowing costs higher across several major economies without policy rate changes1. This week’s U.S. CPI report will help determine whether that shift has gone far enough for the Fed to remain on hold this year, or whether policymakers will need to do more themselves.

Let’s get real about tightening conditions

Rising yields reflect investors demanding greater compensation for inflation uncertainty, fiscal concerns, and a less predictable policy path. The effect on financial conditions is much the same as a rate hike and is one reason the Fed has been able to leave rates unchanged while keeping the door open to tightening if the data warrant it. The question of whether to hike and the question of whether markets have already done enough tightening are one and the same.

That tension was evident in the Fed’s 9-3 vote at its July meeting. The majority judged policy to be sufficiently restrictive to leave rates unchanged, while three dissenting members argued for an increase. At the same time, policymakers acknowledged that “material tightening” through higher nominal and real bond yields since the previous meeting had “done quite a bit”, giving the FOMC more scope to wait for additional data before deciding whether further action is needed2.

The composition of yield moves helps explain why. Since the July meeting, front-end yields have declined as markets priced a more patient Fed, while longer-dated yields have continued to rise. If higher yields continue to reflect rising real yields while inflation expectations remain well anchored, markets are effectively doing some of the Fed’s work. A rise in inflation expectations alongside yields would send a much less reassuring signal, that the Fed is falling behind the curve and a hike is warranted.

The July CPI report will help make the case for or against that September rate hike. Expectations point to core CPI slipping to 2.5% and easing over coming months3. But it’s not just whether Wednesday’s release surprises by a tenth either way. It is also whether the recent divergence between CPI and the Fed’s preferred core PCE inflation gauge begins to narrow.

Another month of moderation would strengthen the case that markets have already delivered much of the restraint policymakers require; persistent inflation would do the opposite. Our expectation that the Fed remains on hold rests on a broadly stable labour market alongside continued, albeit gradual, progress on inflation across broader measures of underlying price pressures.

To hike or to hold, the debate of the summer

The debate within the Committee, however, reflects two competing risks. One camp argues inflation remains sufficiently above target that the Fed should tighten further rather than risk falling behind the curve. The other believes policy is already restrictive enough and that softer labour market conditions, together with tighter financial conditions, will continue to ease price pressures without another rate increase. This week’s inflation report could shift the balance either way.

A hike, if it comes, would likely be read as confirmation that the Fed sees an inflation problem more persistent than the data alone suggest, prompting markets to extrapolate a longer or steeper tightening path than the move itself would justify. Holding steady carries less of that self-reinforcing dynamic. Moreover, market-based inflation expectations at the 2- and 5-year horizon are already running close to the Fed’s target. A hike into that backdrop risks doing less to guard against an inflation problem than to push already-soft expectations lower still.

The softer July payrolls report reduced the urgency for additional tightening and reinforced the view that policy remains restrictive. Housing is pointing in the same direction, with weaker demand and easing price pressures suggesting one of the economy’s most interest-rate-sensitive sectors is already responding to tighter financial conditions.

Positioning implications

Front-end yields have room to grind lower if the Fed’s patience is validated, while long-end yields are likely to stay under pressure unless fiscal concerns fade. That argues for curve steepeners over an outright duration view, at least until a run of CPI prints clarifies which side of the debate the data are leaning toward.

Whether markets can keep doing part of the Fed’s job depends on whether inflation resumes its gradual moderation. If it does, policymakers can point to higher real yields as evidence that financial conditions are already restrictive enough without another increase in policy rates. If price pressures prove more persistent, the July dissents may mark the start of a broader shift rather than an isolated minority view.

This week’s CPI report won’t settle that question outright, but it will provide an important test of whether markets have already done enough tightening for the Fed, or whether the Fed still has more work to do.

Sources: Bloomberg, as of 10 August 2026

[*As of 30 June 2026]