In the United States, financial markets will have their eyes on the US inflation rate alongside retail sales, producer inflation, the Michigan consumer sentiment index, and industrial production. In the UK, attention will turn to the unemployment rate, industrial production, GDP growth figures for January, and foreign trade statistics. From China, the focus will be on monetary indicators including new yuan loans, car sales, and the house price index. Also, inflation rates in Brazil, India, and Russia will be closely watched. Finally, industrial production figures for the Euro Area and India, along with the NAB business confidence index from Australia, will provide further indicators of global economic conditions.
Americas
The upcoming week on the US is headlined by the eagerly awaited February CPI report, alongside retail trade, industrial production, and the preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment for March. Headline inflation is poised to remain unchanged at 3.1% in February, while the core rate is expected to dip to 3.7%, its lowest level since April 2021. On a month-over-month basis, both headline and core rates are anticipated to advance by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. Retail sales are projected to rise by 0.5%, partially reversing a 0.8% decline in January, while industrial activity is expected to remain unchanged after a 0.1% contraction. Moreover, the Michigan consumer sentiment, is expected to be at 76.9 in March, unchanged from February and slightly below January’s two-and-a-half-year high of 79. Attention will also be on producer and foreign trade prices, business inventories, the government’s monthly budget statement, and the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index. Elsewhere in America, key data to watch for includes Canada’s housing starts and Brazil’s inflation figures, retail sales, and business morale.
Europe
In the United Kingdom, key updates include monthly GDP figures, industrial production, trade balance, and the jobs report. The British economy is expected to recover in January, even though industrial and manufacturing production stalled after two months of growth. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 3.8% for the three months leading up to January, remaining at its lowest point in a year. Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, are anticipated to decrease slightly to 5.7%, the lowest since July 2022. Elsewhere, final inflation figures for Germany, France, and Italy will be released, while industrial activity in the Euro Area is expected to decline following two consecutive months of growth. In Russia, inflation is predicted to rise to 7.6%, the highest in twelve months. Other data releases to watch for include Germany’s wholesale prices, Italy’s retail sales and foreign trade data, Switzerland’s consumer confidence index, as well as Turkey’s unemployment rate and industrial production numbers.
Asia and Australia
In China, the focus will be on the People’s Bank of China’s one-year medium-term lending facility rate announcement, amid increasing anticipation of a possible rate cut. Also, the impact of the Lunar New Year holidays on new yuan loans and monetary indicators is expected to slow down loan growth from the record levels seen in January. Additionally, the house price index will be a key indicator to watch. In Japan, the final estimates for GDP growth in Q4 will probably show the economy grew 0.3% instead of the 0.1% contraction initially reported, driven by stronger corporate spending on plant and equipment. Machine tool orders and the PPI will also be in the spotlight. India is expected to see a slight easing of inflationary pressures in both retail and wholesale sectors, while industrial production is forecasted to grow at a slightly faster pace.Trade figures from the Philippines and Indonesia will also be released and in Australia, the NAB business confidence index will be closely followed for an indication of the business sentiment in the country.