Week Ahead – April 3rd

It will be a busy week in the US with nonfarm payrolls, JOLTS job openings, ISM services and manufacturing PMI and external trade data taking the central stage. Also, inflation rates will be released for South Korea, Switzerland, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, and Turkey and central banks in India, Australia, New Zealand, Poland, and Israel will decide on the course of monetary policy. Finally, PMI figures are set to show the state of the manufacturing sector in China, India, Russia, South Korea, Canada, Spain, and Italy.

The upcoming week will be full of releases in the US, including the Labor Department’s March jobs report that will offer clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike path. The US economy likely added 240k jobs, fewer than 311K in February, with unemployment sticking to 3.6%. The average hourly earnings probably increased 0.3% month-over-month, accelerating from a prior 0.2% rise. The Labor Department will also release February data on job openings, quits, hires, and layoffs. At the same time, the Institute for Supply Management will publish March surveys of purchasing managers, measuring economic activity in the US manufacturing and services sector. Economists expect data to indicate further contraction in factory activity and softer expansion in the services sector.On top of that, market participants will closely monitor the Commerce Department trade balance report. Elsewhere in America, Canada will post its March jobs report and trade balance figures for February.

In Euro Area producer prices likely fell for the second consecutive period in February, and industrial output in Germany likely rose marginally after recording the biggest advance in 2-1/2 years, with factory orders easing for a third month. Also, final S&P PMIs are set to confirm the Eurozone economic growth accelerated to a 10-month high in March but remained modest overall, driven solely by the services sector. Output increased for a second straight month in both France and Germany. However, it was the rest of the eurozone as a whole that reported the strongest performance. The services PMI is seen reaching the 16-month peak in Spain and the 10-month peak in Italy. Other numbers to follow include Germany’s foreign trade; Italy’s retail sales; France’s industrial output and external trade; Spain’s unemployment; Switzerland’s inflation rate and the jobless rate, and Turkey’s consumer price index. In the United Kingdom, investors will keep an eye on PMI figures, as well as the Halifax house price index.

In Australia, all attention will be drawn to the RBA’s interest rate decision, as investors’ opinions are split between a rate hike and a long-awaited pause. Other Aussie releases will cover February’s trade balance and the Ai Group Industry index for March. Additionally, the RBNZ will hold its monetary policy meeting.

In Asia, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for March is projected to show China’s reopening continued to support growth in factory activity. In Japan, traders await the Tankan Manufacturers’ Index for the first quarter. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India is forecasted to deliver another 25bps increase in its key interest rate. Plus, the PMI data is expected to reflect the expansion in the country’s manufacturing sector in March. Elsewhere, the Philippines, Indonesia, and South Korea will post fresh CPI figures.