Recently, we had a nice surprise with a bearish move that lasted just a few days longer than expected. A supposed retrace that went from $98,000 to $76,000 in a matter of 16 days. A drop more than 22% strong (-22.76%). Bron TradingView.
I was having doubts about the final wave of the relief rally. I continued to doubt its duration with an end date around mid-February being just too early, things just didn’t add up.
The picture is clear now, based on the current move and the four consecutive red months close, we can easily see a full green February 2026 and also March 2026. The variation comes in March. It can be full green as well with a top in April, as it happened many times in previous cycles, or until mid-March. But now, the picture is clear when it comes to room for growth and duration for a relief rally.
Since $98,000 produced such a strong rejection, this becomes the main resistance on the way up. That is, ~$100,000 is the barrier now, keep this level in mind to prepare for short at the end of the C wave.
There is a saying in this market, "Sell in May and go away."
Let’s start to map Bitcoin’s long-term chart.
Q1 2026 bullish. Sometime around February, March and April. Can be just February and March. Allow for strong variations.
Q2-Q3 2026 bearish. Bear market climax. Two dates are available for the main lows. July 2026, a major low. October 2026, potential final low. Can be a lower low or higher low or double-bottom. October 2026 is of great interest because the peak happened October 2025. Bitcoin tends to turn bearish for a full year.
Q4 2026 neutral. Recovery period. Bottom consolidation. Some weak bullish action. The start of bullish action very late in the year.
Q1 2027 bullish recovery. The bullish recovery is confirmed.
Q2-Q3 2027 consolidation after initial bullish breakout.
Q4 2027 the start of a new bullish cycle. A new uptrend is fully formed and confirmed. Long-term growth until the final peak sometime around late 2029.
This is our long-term map. As the action unravels, we adapt to market conditions. The map is not the terrain.
Going deeper into the action:
February 2026 can be a bit tricky. While action can turn extremely bullish, an entire month is still a long time. The market can be quite cunning and deceiving. The month can start weak, red, only to turn at some point and produce strong bullish action; do not be deceived. Everything on this chart allows for a wave of growth.
With that said, there is a scenario where the market goes straight down but this is the least probable one but still possible.
A bullish wave in the coming months would produce the classic head and shoulders pattern to conclude Bitcoin’s 2025 bullish cycle. The right shoulder is a lower high and this confirms the 2026 major lower low.
Remember how PAXGUSDT and TSLA went bearish recently, clearly showing a worldwide bearish bias in 2026.
It is not yet over, there is time to prepare. When the final high is in, I will share lots of instructions, techniques and opportunities to weather the bear market. We are going up next.