Week Ahead

The US is releasing the second estimate of Q1 GDP in the coming week, alongside durable goods orders, personal income and outlays, and PCE price index. Other GDP updates will be keenly watched, including for India, Turkey, Brazil and Canada. Elsewhere, all eyes turn to the Eurozone business survey and inflation rate, Germany retail sales, China industrial profits, and Japan consumer confidence, industrial production and retail trade. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea will probably cut interest rates when it meets on Thursday.

The US will be publishing the second estimate of first-quarter GDP on Thursday, with market forecasts suggesting the economy fell deeper into contraction than initially thought. Preliminary figures showed the GDP shrank by an annualized 4.8 percent in the January to March period, the steepest pace of contraction since the last quarter of 2008, as the Covid-19 pandemic forced several states to impose lockdown measures from mid-March.

Meanwhile, durable goods orders are seen falling in April at the fastest rate since a record slump was recorded in August 2014. Other notable publications include: personal income and outlays; PCE price index; new and pending home sales; Case-Shiller home prices; Chicago Fed National Activity Index; Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index; Chicago PMI; the advance estimates of goods trade balance and wholesale inventories; and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

US stock markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day.

Other key data to watch for in America include Canada first-quarter GDP and current account; Mexico final first-quarter GDP, unemployment and trade balance; and Brazil first-quarter GDP and jobless rate. The central bank of Mexico is also due to publish its monetary policy meeting minutes.

Across the Atlantic, the UK will publish Nationwide housing prices index, CBI distributive trades and car production. Investors will also keep an eye on the Eurozone business survey, monetary indicators and the flash estimate of May’s inflation rate. Meanwhile, Germany’s final first-quarter GDP data will most likely confirm the bloc’s largest economy contracted the most since the first quarter of 2009. Also, both the Ifo business climate and the Gfk consumer confidence will probably rise from a record lows hit in April, while retail sales are seen falling at an unprecedented pace.

Other key economic data include: Italy and France final first-quarter GDP figures and business and consumer morale; Spain retail trade and business confidence; Switzerland KOF leading indicators, industrial production and foreign trade; and Turkey first-quarter GDP growth and trade balance. Sweden, Poland, Russia and Norway will be publishing their latest job reports.

Investors in Japan will turn their attention to consumer confidence, unemployment rate, retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and Tokyo inflation. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea will be deciding on monetary policy, with markets expecting a rate cut amid the coronavirus crisis. On the economic data front, important releases include consumer and business confidence, industrial production and retail sales. Traders in Australia will focus on first-quarter construction work done, private capital expenditure and private sector credit.

Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region include: China industrial profits; India first-quarter GDP data; Hong Kong and New Zealand foreign trade figures; Singapore final first-quarter GDP, inflation and manufacturing output; Taiwan final first-quarter GDP, consumer morale and industrial output; and Thailand industrial production.

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