Week Ahead – Sep 4th

It will be a relatively light week in the United States, with the spotlight on ISM Services PMI, factory orders, and foreign trade data. Elsewhere, Australia and Canada will announce interest rate decisions. Also, inflation rates will be monitored in Turkey, South Korea, the Philippines, Mexico, and Russia. GDP growth figures will be released for Australia, South Africa, and Switzerland. Additionally, Services PMI readings for China, Spain, Italy, and Brazil will be assessed.

US markets will be closed on Monday in celebration of Labor Day. Later in the week, investors will be anticipating the release of ISM Non-manufacturing PMI survey, which is likely to signal a modest deceleration in the country’s service sector. Alongside this, the US is releasing various other important economic indicators, including data on factory orders, foreign trade, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, weekly jobless claims, as well as the final readings of the S&P Global Services PMI and second-quarter labor productivity. Elsewhere in America, the Bank of Canada will likely hold interest rates at current levels as policymakers adopt a wait-and-see approach to observe the effects of the latest cumulative policy tightening on price pressures and activity. The country’s employment report, Ivey PMI, and trade balance will also be in the spotlight, as well as Mexico’s inflation and consumer morale and Brazil’s industrial output and S&P Global Services PMI.

In Europe, investors await final figures for the Euro Area’s Q2 GDP and Germany’s August inflation rate, as well as updated S&P PMIs. Meanwhile, industrial production is anticipated to decline for a third consecutive month in Germany and for the second consecutive month in France. Additionally, it is likely that retail sales in the Euro Area also dropped for the second straight month in July. Other data to follow include Germany’s balance of trade; Spain’s unemployment change; Switzerland’s Q2 GDP and unemployment rate; and Turkey’s inflation rate and foreign trade. In the United Kingdom, the economic calendar will be soft, with important releases including the final S&P PMIs and Halifax House price index.

In China, a batch of trade data for August will offer further insights into the country’s recent resource demand after PMI figures for the period reflected a slightly better outlook than expected, tempering perspectives that Beijing is willing to let its economy run cold before more support. In Japan, investors await updated current account figures with July’s transactions. Elsewhere, South Korea and the Philippines will divulge their inflation rates for August, while monetary authorities Malaysia and Israel will decide on their policy rates.

In Australia, a week with major releases will be headlined by second-quarter GDP data, set to show another period of consistent growth. In the meantime, the RBA is expected to hold its cash rate at 4.1% as the latest data consolidated evidence of disinflation and unemployment ticked higher. Other major releases include the trade balance for July and the Ai Group Industry index for August.