Week Ahead – Sep 25th

After a week filled with central bank meetings, attention will once again shift to macroeconomic data. In the United States, the spotlight will be on the PCE Price Index, as well as personal income and spending data. Additionally, the focus will be directed toward durable goods orders, the final reading of the Q2 GDP growth rate, and pending and new home sales. In Europe, September inflation rates will be released for the Euro Area, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. Finally, investors are set to monitor Ifo Business Climate, GFK Consumer Confidence, and retail sales figures for Germany, along with industrial production, retail sales, the unemployment rate, consumer confidence, and the BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes in Japan.

Next week, all eyes will be focused on the US personal outlays and income report, with particular anticipation surrounding the release of the PCE price index. It is expected that core PCE prices have risen by 0.2% in August, the same pace as in July; while the annual rate, which is considered the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, is expected to have eased to 3.8%, marking its lowest point since June 2021. The report is also poised to reveal a 0.5% increase in consumer spending and a 0.4% gain in income for the same period. In addition, investors will closely monitor August’s durable goods orders, as well as the final readings on second-quarter GDP growth and September’s Michigan consumer sentiment. Moreover, the housing market will come under scrutiny, with a focus on Case-Shiller home prices, new and pending home sales figures. Additionally, market watchers will keep a close eye on advance estimates of wholesale inventories, the goods trade balance, CB consumer confidence, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index. Other significant events across the Americas include the release of Canada’s monthly GDP figures, and updates on Mexico’s unemployment and foreign trade data.

In Europe, all eyes will turn to the flash CPI report from the Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. The annual inflation rate in the Euro Area is expected to slow for the fifth consecutive month to 4.5% in September, the lowest since October 2021 but still well above the ECB’s 2% target. In Germany, a sharp drop in headline inflation to 4.6% is expected mainly due to lower external costs. On the other hand, in France, inflation is expected to accelerate slightly to 5%. Additionally, for Germany, the Ifo Business Climate indicator is expected to decline for the fifth consecutive month to its lowest level since October 2022, while the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator is likely unchanged from September’s four-month low. On a brighter note, German retail sales probably rebounded marginally after two consecutive months of falls. Other data to follow includes the Euro Area’s business survey, Germany’s unemployment rate, Italy’s consumer and business survey, France’s jobless data and consumer morale, Switzerland’s KOF Leading indicators, and Turkey’s business confidence. The United Kingdom will publish the final estimate of second-quarter GDP growth, alongside current account, Bank of England’s monetary indicators, CBI distributive trades, and Nationwide house price index.

In Asia, a week will be headlined by minutes from the Bank of Japan’s latest policy meeting, offering insights on the timeline for the central bank’s potential pivot away from ultra-loose monetary policy, in addition to potential support for the yen. Other data from Japan includes industrial production, retail sales, and the unemployment rate for August. In India, alI eyes will be on the current account for the second quarter. Also, South Korea will divulge business and consumer confidence for September. Elsewhere, the Bank of Thailand will hold another monetary policy decision, while Singapore’s inflation rate is expected to ease. In Australia, the monthly inflation rate is expected to rebound for the first time since April, pressuring recent holds from the RBA. Retail sales and batch of Aussie credit data are also eyed, while New Zealand will release forward-looking confidence indicators.