Week Ahead – Sep 11th

It will be a busy week in the United States, with the inflation rate and retail sales data taking center stage, followed by the University of Michigan consumer confidence index, industrial production figures, and export and import prices. Investors will also be eagerly awaiting the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision and the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany. In the United Kingdom, the focus will be on the unemployment rate, earnings data, July’s GDP growth figures, industrial production, and foreign trade data. In China, key indicators to watch include August’s industrial production, retail sales, unemployment rates, car sales, loan growth, and fixed asset investments. Finally, Brazil and India will unveil their inflation rates, and Australia will release the NAB Business Confidence Index.

Next week, all eyes will be on the United States’ CPI report and retail sales. Headline consumer prices are expected to have risen by 3.6 percent last month, accelerating for the second consecutive month. On the other hand, the core index is likely to have increased by 4.3 percent, the least since September 2021. Also, retail sales is expected to have grown only 0.2 percent month-over-month, down from July’s 0.7 percent. There are several other reports worth watching, including industrial production, producer and foreign trade prices, the preliminary estimate of Michigan consumer sentiment, business inventories, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, and the government’s monthly budget statement. Elsewhere in Americas, investors will also be keeping an eye on Canada’s international transactions in securities, Mexico’s industrial output data, and Brazil’s inflation rate, retail trade, and business morale.

In Europe, ECB’s will be deciding on the course of its monetary policy on Thursday. The central bank is expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged, marking a pause in the rate-hike campaign after nine consecutive increases that brought the rate on the deposit facility to a 22-year high of 3.75%. Traders will also await further clues regarding the central bank’s plans for the rest of the year, and new economic forecasts will be closely scrutinized. On the data front, it will be interesting to follow final inflation figures for Spain, France and Italy; ZEW economic sentiment and wholesale prices for Germany; and Euro Area industrial production, labour costs, wage growth and trade balance. In the UK, a batch of important indicators will offer insights into the country’s economic health, namely unemployment rate and wage growth, GDP growth for the month of August, trade balance and industrial production. Finally, Turkey will release industrial production, retail sales, unemployment rate and current account.

In China, a batch of economic data for August will give the latest insights on whether initial government support measures may have already had an impact on its slowing economy. New releases are set to show slight rebounds in consumer prices, new yuan loans, industrial production growth, and retail sales, while fixed investment and house prices will be closely eyed for turns following Country Garden’s missed bond payments. In Japan, investors await the Reuters Tankan index for September and July’s machinery orders. In India, inflation is expected to have slowed, contrary to a rebound in industrial output and a stable trade balance. Elsewhere, South Korea will share its August unemployment rate. In Australia, key releases include forward-looking indicators such as September’s Westpac consumer confidence, August’s NAB Business confidence indices and range of labor data.