Week Ahead – Oct 9th

In the United States, attention will be on the inflation report, FOMC meeting minutes, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, wholesale price data, and the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. It also heralds the start of the earnings season with major companies like Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, UnitedHealth Group, PepsiCo, and Delta Air Lines reporting. International focus will be on inflation rates in China, Mexico, India, Brazil, and Russia. Additionally, China will release its trade balance, PPI inflation, and new yuan loans data, while the United Kingdom will provide monthly GDP figures. Australia will reveal Westpac Consumer Confidence and NAB Business Confidence data, and Germany will share insights into its industrial production.

In the United States, the focus will be on the inflation report for September. The CPI is anticipated to have risen by 0.3% last month, a decrease from the 0.6% increase seen in August, while the core index is expected to have increased by 0.3%. Additionally, the headline annual inflation rate is expected to slow slightly to 3.6%. Furthermore, investors will follow the release of FOMC minutes, speeches by several Federal Reserve officials, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, producer inflation data, and the government’s monthly budget statement. Finally, next week marks the beginning of the Q3 earnings season with reports from Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, UnitedHealth Group, PepsiCo, and Delta Air Lines. In other parts of the Americas, key data to watch for includes inflation reports from both Mexico and Brazil, as well as Brazil’s business confidence.

In Europe, the ECB is set to release its monetary policy meeting accounts on Thursday. Also, updated CPI reports are anticipated to confirm a significant easing of inflation in Germany to 4.5%, while France is expected to maintain its high level at 4.9%, both well above the ECB’s 2% target. Industrial production in the Euro Area is expected to see a slight rebound, while Italy is set to experience stagnant output growth, and in Germany, output is likely to have declined for the fourth consecutive month. Additionally, data will include Turkey’s unemployment rate and industrial output, as well as Russia’s inflation rate and balance of trade.In the United Kingdom, monthly GDP figures from the ONS are expected to show economic expansion in August. However, industrial and manufacturing output are anticipated to decline for the second consecutive month. Investors will also be monitoring the foreign trade balance, construction output, and the BRC retail sales monitor.

In Asia, financial and commodity markets in China will reopen and cetral stage will be take by foreign trade data, M2 Money supply, New Yuan loans and September’s CPI print. In Japan, investors await October’s Reuters Tankan index and August’s current account. In India, a busy week of economic releases will be headlined by September’s inflation rate, set to ease back to below the RBI’s upper threshold after the central bank warned it may start to sell G-Secs. Other Indian releases include industrial production and the trade balance. Elsewhere, Singapore will unveil its 3rd quarter GDP and South Korea will update its unemployment rate.

In Australia, investors await key forward-looking indicators in October’s Westpac Consumer Confidence and September’s NAB Business Confidence.