Week Ahead – Oct 30th

In the US, all eyes are on the Fed’s interest rate decision, and the labor market report followed by ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, JOLTs Job Openings, and factory orders. Also, Q3 earnings reports from major companies like Apple, McDonald’s Corp, Advanced Micro Devices, Airbnb, Amgen, Caterpillar, Qualcomm, Eli Lilly, and Pfizer are eagerly awaited. Internationally, central bank interest rate decisions from the United Kingdom, Japan, and Brazil will be of utmost importance. Inflation rates in the Euro Area, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, South Korea, Turkey, Indonesia, and Switzerland will be closely monitored. Furthermore, Q3 GDP growth rates in Germany, the Euro Area, France, Italy, and Mexico will be scrutinized. Manufacturing and Services PMIs, particularly in China, as well as manufacturing PMIs in India, Canada, Italy, and South Korea, will offer insights into global economic dynamics.

Earnings report will continue at full force next week, with investors anticipating updates from major companies, including Apple Inc, Airbnb, Advanced Micro Devices, Amgen, Caterpillar Inc, Etsy, Eli Lilly and Co, Liberty Global, McDonald’s Corp, Moderna, Novo Nordisk, PayPal, Pinterest, Pfizer, Starbucks. Additionally, all eyes will be on the US FOMC meeting, where policymakers are expected to maintain interest rates, the focal points will include expectations for the December meeting, and any clues regarding the conditions required for the FOMC to initiate rate cuts in the coming year. Turning to economic data, the US jobs report will likely reveal a 172K increase in non-farm payrolls for October, far below a 336K jobs in September. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 3.8%, with monthly wage growth expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%. Other releases to watch for include October’s ISM PMI surveys, JOLTs job openings, Q3 employment cost index and productivity, Case-Shiller home prices, ADP Employment Change, factory orders, and regional activity indexes such as the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index and Chicago PMI.

Elsewhere in America, key data to monitor includes Canada’s GDP and employment figures, Mexico’s Q3 GDP and business sentiment, and PMI figures from various countries across the continent. Brazil’s central bank will decide on monetary policy, and data releases from the country will cover the unemployment rate, industrial output, and foreign trade.

It will be a busy week in Europe as well. In the Euro Area, the inflation is expected to have slowed to 3.4% in October, the lowest in two years, and the core rate is seen falling to 4.2% from 4.5%. The GDP probably contracted 0.1% over the previous period in Q3, following two quarters of sluggish performance during which the economy expanded by a meagre 0.1%. In Germany, the GDP likely contracted 0.3%, which would mark a fourth straight quarter of no growth. Preliminary GDP growth figures for France and Italy and inflation for Germany, France, Italy and Spain are also due. In addition, it will be interesting to follow manufacturing and services PMIs; Euro Area business sentiment and unemployment; Germany unemployment, retail sales and trade data; Sweden GDP growth; and Switzerland and Turkey inflation rate. In the UK, all eyes will be on the Bank of England monetary policy decision, with the central bank set to keep interest rates steady once again, and investors will be closely examining any clues regarding their plans for the remainder of the year. Mortgage and credit indicators are also due.

In Asia, new PMI data is expected to show that China’s manufacturing sector continued to expand in October, extending the momentum of optimistic responses to economic stimulus from Beijing despite persistent headwinds in the debt-ridden residential property market. In Japan, all eyes will be on the BoJ’s interest rate decision, as a series of unscheduled JGB purchases prompted the possibility of another tweak to the central bank’s yield-curve-control policy. Japan will also update its unemployment rate, industrial growth, and retail sales figures. In the meantime, fresh PMI data is expected from India, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia. Also, third-quarter GDP figures are awaited from Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.