Week Ahead – Oct 2nd

It will be a very busy week in the US with the jobs report and speeches by several Fed officials taking central stage followed by the Jolts Jobs Openings, services and manufacturing PMIs, foreign trade data, and factory orders. Investors will also be closely monitoring inflation rates for Indonesia, Switzerland, Turkey, South Korea, and the Philippines and interest rate decisions in Australia, New Zealand, and India. Elsewhere, fresh manufacturing PMI data is expected to be released for Spain, Switzerland, Italy, Canada, India, Russia, and South Korea, while services PMIs will be reported for Spain, Italy, and Brazil. Also, in the spotlight will be foreign trade data for Australia, Brazil, Germany, and Canada. Finally, market participants will be keeping a close eye on unemployment rates for Canada and the Euro Area, the Tankan Large Manufacturers Index for Japan, and factory orders for Germany.

The first week of October will witness the of eagerly anticipated US jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 150 thousand in September, the lest in three months, further contributing to signs of a gradually weakening labor market. Additionally, the unemployment rate is likely to have eased to 3.7%, and wage growth is expected to remain at 4.1%. Also, investors will closely monitor speeches by several Fed officials, JOLTs job openings, factory orders foreign trade data and PMI surveys from both the ISM and S&P Global. ISM PMIs are likely to signal another month of contraction in the US manufacturing sector, coupled with a softer increase in service sector activity. In other parts of the Americas, Canada’s employment figures and trade balance will be under scrutiny, along with Mexico’s business and consumer morale, Brazil’s industrial output and foreign trade, and PMI surveys from across the region.

In Europe, data is expected to show that retail sales in the Euro Area declined for the second consecutive month in August. Germany is likely to see a rebound in factory orders following their sharpest drop since April 2020, while France is expected to experience a decline in industrial production after a recovery in July. Other notable data releases include the Euro Area’s unemployment rate, Germany’s balance of trade, Italy’s unemployment rate, and retail sales, France’s foreign trade figures, Spain’s unemployment rate, Switzerland’s inflation rate, jobless data, and retail sales, as well as Turkey’s consumer prices and foreign trade statistics. In the United Kingdom, investors will also keep a close watch on housing prices reported by Nationwide and Halifax.

In Asia, PMIs in China will offer fresh updates on the impact of Beijing’s support measures and debt risks from property developers into the end of the third quarter, shortly before the country closes financial and commodity markets for the week due to Golden Week festivities. In Japan, markets await the 3rd quarter Tankan Large Manufacturers Index and the Summary of Opinions document from the Bank of Japan. In India, September’s PMI will also be eyed, while the RBI is expected to maintain its policy rate at the terminal level as inflationary threats linger. Elsewhere, South Korea, the Philippines, and Indonesia will unveil September CPI prints. Finally, both the RBA in Australia and the RBNZ in New Zealand are expected to maintain their policy rates unchanged. Other Aussie releases include August’s trade balance, the Ai Group index for September, and a series of housing data.