Week Ahead – Oct 23rd

In the United States, attention will be focused on critical data points, including the Q3 GDP growth rate, the PCE Price index, and personal income and spending, followed by key metrics such as durable goods orders and PMI readings from S&P Global. Housing market health will also be assessed through pending and new home sales. Meanwhile, the earnings calendar is set for a flurry of activity with major players like Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, 3M, Coca-Cola, GM, and Spotify among those releasing their reports. Internationally, central bank interest rate decisions will be key, with announcements from the ECB, Bank of Canada, and Turkey’s TCMB. Flash services and manufacturing PMIs will be released in Australia, Japan, France, Germany, the Euro Area, and the United Kingdom. Australia’s inflation rate, Germany’s Ifo Business Climate, and GFK consumer confidence, as well as GDP growth rates in South Korea and Spain, and the UK’s unemployment rate, will also be closely watched.

We are entering one of the busiest weeks on the earnings calendar, with major tech firms such as Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon set to release their results. Other big companies to watch include 3M Co, Coca-Cola, General Motors, Spotify, Verizon Communications, Snap, Visa, Mastercard, Automatic Data Processing, Boeing, CME Group, Merck & Co, Ford Motor, Intel, Chevron, and Exxon Mobil. Turning to the economic calendar, the US will publish the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP, along with September’s personal outlays and income. It is expected that the US economy expanded by an annualized rate of 4.1% in Q3,, marking an acceleration from the 2.1% growth in the previous quarter, due in part to robust consumer spending and increased private investment. It is anticipated that core PCE prices will have risen by 0.3% in September, a slight increase compared to the 0.1% gain observed in August. The report is also expected to reveal a 0.3% increase in consumer spending and a 0.4% advance in income for the same period. Furthermore, investors will closely monitor September’s durable goods orders, the flash S&P Global PMI survey, new and pending home sales, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the advance estimates of wholesale sales and the goods trade balance, as well as the final reading of the Michigan consumer sentiment. Elsewhere in America, the Bank of Canada is likely to maintain current interest rates, given indications that inflation in the country is gradually moderating. Canada’s housing prices and Mexico’s foreign trade and unemployment figures will also be in the spotlight.

In Europe, the European Central Bank is widely anticipated to maintain current interest rates, marking a pause in its tightening campaign after ten consecutive rate hikes. On the macroeconomic calendar, preliminary data is likely to indicate a decline in Euro Area consumer confidence due to renewed concerns about inflation stemming from rising oil prices and the ongoing Middle East conflict. Along similar lines, the GfK consumer climate indicator in Germany is expected to weaken to its lowest point in seven months, and the German Ifo business climate indicator is likely to ease to a one-year low. Also, initial PMI readings are projected to show a continued, albeit moderate, contraction in business activity across the bloc’s private sector, with both manufacturing and services output declining at a slower pace. Other key data releases include France’s consumer sentiment and employment statistics, Italy’s business and consumer surveys, Spain’s flash Q3 GDP figures, and unemployment data, as well as Turkey’s interest rate decision and business confidence reports. In the United Kingdom, the ONS is set to unveil the latest jobs report, while flash PMI data is expected to suggest a more subdued contraction in both the manufacturing and services sectors. Additionally, the CBI will release data on factory orders, business confidence, and distributive trades.

In Japan, all eyes will be on October’s PMI data and Tokyo’s CPI print as markets attempt to anticipate further intervention or a possible policy pivot from the Bank of Japan. In South Korea, investors await third-quarter GDP figures along with forward-looking business and consumer confidence indicators for October. Elsewhere, Singapore will release updates for its inflation rate, unemployment rate, and industrial production. In Australia, the third-quarter inflation rate is expected to reflect a slight slowdown in price growth. Investors also await new Aussie PMI data.