In the upcoming week, the focus in the US will center on the eagerly awaited inflation rate data, with retail sales and speeches by Fed officials also taking the spotlight. Additionally, attention will be directed towards producer prices, industrial production, export and import prices, as well as building permits and housing starts. The earnings season will continue, featuring reports from Home Depot, Cisco, TJX, Walmart, and Applied Materials. Internationally, in the UK, investors will closely monitor inflation rate, retail sales, and unemployment rate.
Also, China will be in the limelight with updates on new yuan loans, industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment. The week will also unveil Q3 GDP growth rates for Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Russia, and Malaysia. Finally, Germany will release ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, India inflation rate data, and Australia will provide updates on both Westpac Consumer Confidence and NAB Business Confidence.
In the United States, the most important release will be the October CPI. Consumer prices are seen rising 0.1% from September, which would mark the lowest reading in four months, largely due to a fall in gasoline prices. Excluding fuel and energy however, core CPI likely rose 0.3%, the same as in September, leaving the annual rate steady at 4.1%. Meanwhile, retail sales are seen falling 0.1%, which would mark the first decrease in seven months. Other important indicators to follow include producer prices, industrial production, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the NAHB Housing Market Index, building permits and housing starts. Simultaneously, the earnings season continues with Home Depot, Cisco, Target, Walmart and Applied Materials among the companies due to report quarterly results. Elsewhere in America, Canada will publish the PPI and raw material prices.
In the United Kingdom, the economic calendar includes key reports on inflation, unemployment, and retail sales. The annual inflation rate in the UK is anticipated to fall to a 2-year low of 4.8% from 6.7% in September. Also, retail sales are projected to rebound, while the jobless rate is expected to continue its upward trend in Q3. Elsewhere in Europe, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment in Germany is anticipated to rise to an eight-month high, while industrial output in the Euro Area likely declined in September. Additionally, the Euro Area will publish second estimates of Q3 GDP, while the Netherlands, Poland, and Russia will release flash estimates. Updates on inflation for the Euro Area, France, and Italy will also be released. Other notable data includes Euro Area’s foreign trade, Germany’s wholesale prices, France’s jobless data, and Switzerland’s industrial output.
In Asia, all eyes will be on China’s industrial production, retail sales, unemployment, lending, and investment figures for October. Previous data for the period showed that Asia’s largest economy failed to maintain its economic recovery from the third quarter, raising more concerns that Beijing’s 5% GDP growth target for this year may be unattainable. In the meantime, Japan’s GDP is set to show a fresh contraction in the third quarter, while October’s trade balance will unveil the impact of the yen’s continued depreciation. In India, the inflation rate for October is expected to remain below the RBI’s upper threshold of 6% for a second month, likely pressuring the rupee, which hovers near a record low. Elsewhere, South Korea will update its unemployment data and the Philippines will decide on its monetary policy.
In Australia, investors await a batch of forward-looking indicators, including Novembers Westpac consumer confidence, October’s NAB business confidence indices, and key labor data.