The upcoming week in the US will be dominated by news related to prices, including the inflation rate, producer prices, and export and import prices, as well as the Michigan consumer confidence CPI gauge. Additionally, CPI figures are scheduled to be released in China, Mexico, Brazil, India, and Russia. In the UK, the Q1 GDP growth data will be released, and investors will be closely monitoring the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. Elsewhere, China is set to publish external trade data, and Australia will report on consumer and business confidence.
In the United States, the Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer and producer prices index will be closely watched for clues into inflation trends. Estimates suggest headline inflation rose by 0.4% in April, keeping the annual rate at 5%. Core inflation is forecasted to increase by 0.4%, resulting in the annual rate ease to 5.5% from 5.6%. Meanwhile, producer prices are projected to grow 0.3% monthly, which could bring the yearly inflation down to 2.5% from 2.7%. Additionally, the market will be keeping an eye on the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading of consumer sentiment and inflation expectations for May.Also, in the spotlight will be exports and import prices. Lastly, the earnings season is drawing to a close, with quarterly results from PayPal, Airbnb, Walt Disney and Berkshire Hathaway.
In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England is set to announce its monetary policy decision, with markets predicting a 25 basis point hike, as inflation has been persistently exceeding the 10% for seven consecutive periods as of March. Meanwhile, preliminary data from the ONS is expected to indicate a slight expansion in the British economy in Q1, despite previous faltering in February and March. In Germany, updated CPI figures are likely to confirm a slowdown in the inflation rate to an 8-month low, while industrial production is set to snap a two-month increase in March. Other crucial economic indicators across Europe include the UK’s Halifax house price index, France’s final inflation data and balance of trade, Turkey’s industrial output and the jobless rate, and Russia’s consumer prices.
In Asia, the focus will be on China’s April’s trade balance, inflation rate, and loan growth as part of an ongoing assessment of the country’s economic recovery. In Japan, investors will be monitoring the BoJ’s Minutes and Summary of Opinions reports for insights on potential policy pivots by the central bank’s new governor. In India, the inflation rate for the previous month is anticipated to remain below the RBI’s upper threshold of 6% due to base effects for food and energy prices. Elsewhere, South Korea and the Philippines will release unemployment figures, while Malaysia will publish GDP growth data.
In Australia, the main economic releases will be Westpac consumer confidence figures for May and NAB business confidence data for April. In New Zealand, April’s business confidence figures will be posted.