Week Ahead – July 3rd

Next week the payrolls report and FOMC Minutes will be taking the headlines in the United States. This will be followed by the release of ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, factory orders, and foreign trade data. Additionally, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will be published for India, Russia, Spain, Italy, Switzerland, South Korea, and Canada, along with Services PMI for Spain, Italy, and Brazil. Investors are also eagerly awaiting inflation rates for Indonesia, Switzerland, South Korea, the Philippines, Turkey, and Mexico. Furthermore, focal points for investors will include the Australian interest rate decision, Canada employment data, China Caixin Services and Manufacturing PMI and Japan Tankan Manufacturers Index.

In the United States, the upcoming week will be filled with important releases, including the FOMC meeting minutes, the US jobs report, and ISM PMI surveys for June. The FOMC meeting minutes, scheduled for Wednesday, should provide further insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory. On the economic data front, non-farm payrolls are projected to increase by 200 thousand in June, the lowest since December 2020, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at a seven-month high of 3.7%. Additionally, the ISM reports are likely to indicate a modest increase in service sector activity but a decline in manufacturing output. Other data to monitor includes May’s job openings, factory orders, and foreign trade data, as well as June’s ADP employment change and the final readings of PMI data from S&P Global.

Elsewhere in the Americas, Canada will release employment reports and trade balance data, Mexico will provide inflation figures, business and consumer morale updates, and Brazil will report on industrial output and foreign trade figures.

In the Euro Area, producer prices are expected to decline for the first time in two years, while retail sales are set to remain subdued. Meanwhile, Germany will release foreign trade data, industrial production, and factory orders for May. Other data to follow includes France’s factory output and external trade, Italy’s retail sales, Spain’s unemployment change, Switzerland’s inflation rate and jobless rate, and Turkey’s consumer price and balance of trade. In terms of monetary policy, the National Bank of Poland is set to keep the main interest rate steady for the 10th consecutive meeting at a 20-year high of 6.75%. Additionally, S&P Global PMI figures for Spain and Italy are expected to show further decline in manufacturing activity, while services growth slowed down. In the United Kingdom, the economic calendar is relatively light, with only the releases of final readings of S&P Global PMIs, Halifax house prices, and new car sales scheduled.

In Australia, economists expect the Resrve Bank of Australia to keep its cash rate unchanged at 4.1% following the last meeting’s surprise rate hike, in line with recent signs of slowing inflation. Also, in the spotlight will be trade balance and credit data for May, in addition to the Ai Group Industry index for June.

In China, the broad Caixin PMI will offer new insights on the country’s so-far weak economic recovery and the potential of a stimulus response from the government. In Japan, investors await the Tankan Large Manufacturers index for the second quarter. In India, PMI data for June is expected to reflect another month of sharp growth. Elsewhere, South Korea will share its PMI, trade figures, and inflation rate for June, with the Philippines and Indonesia set to release inflation gauges.