Week Ahead – July 31st

It will be a very busy week with US non-farm payrolls and earnings reports taking center stage. In the US, investors will also be following factory orders, JOLT’s Job Openings, and ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI. Elsewhere, the central banks in the United Kingdom, Australia, and Brazil will be deciding on the course of their monetary policy. Additionally, the spotlight will be on Q2 GDP growth rates for the Euro Area, Italy, Hong Kong, and Mexico, as well as inflation rates for the Euro Area, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland, Turkey, South Korea, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Finally, China will release manufacturing and services PMI data, while Japan, Germany, the Euro Area, and Canada will publish unemployment rates.

In the US, investors will closely monitor the jobs report, ISM PMI surveys, and JOLTs’ job openings. It is expected that non-farm payrolls increased by 200 thousand in July, which would be the lowest figure since a decline was recorded in December 2020, indicating the potential effects of the unprecedented policy tightening delivered by the Fed in recent months. Additionally, the second-quarter earnings season will be in full swing, featuring reports from companies such as Apple Inc, Amazon.com, Advanced Micro Devices, Shopify, Alibaba Group, Uber Technologies, Merck & Co, Pfizer, Gilead Sciences, Moderna, Caterpillar Inc, Starbucks Corp, The Kraft Heinz Co, Etsy, PayPal Holdings, and Airbnb. In addition, investors will find interest in following the ADP employment change, second-quarter labor productivity and labor costs, factory orders, and regional industry indexes such as the Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index."

In other parts of America, Canada’s employment figures and PMIs from both the S&P Global and Ivey Business School will be in the spotlight, along with Mexico’s second-quarter GDP as well as Brazil’s interest rate decision.

In the UK, all eyes will be on the upcoming Bank of England meeting at which policymakers are expected to raise its key bank rate by 25 bps to 5.25%, the highest since April 2008. On the economic data front, the BoE will be publishing its monetary indicator, the Nationwide Building Society will be releasing housing prices and S&P Global will update PMIs.

Elsewhere in Europe, flash estimates for the second-quarter GDP and inflation are eagerly awaited for both the Euro Area and Italy. The Euro Area is expected to see a return to growth in the second quarter of the year while the Italian economy is projected to have stalled. Inflation rates in the Euro Area are also in focus, with the annual inflation rate falling to 5.3% in July, the lowest since January 2022. The core inflation rate is expected to decrease to 5.4%, still close to record levels of 5.7%. In Germany, factory orders are expected to show a decline in June after two consecutive months of increases. Employment figures will be published for Germany, Spain, and Italy, while S&P will update PMIs. Other important releases include the Eurozone’s retail sales and producer prices; Germany’s balance of trade; France and Italy’s industrial production; Switzerland’s inflation rate and Turkey’s inflation rate and foreign trade.

In Asia, Chinese PMI figures for July will offer the latest insights on the country’s sluggish economic recovery, possibly acting as a gauge for the extent of incoming economic support from the government. The world’s second-largest economy will also release its current account balance for the second quarter. A busy week of Japanese releases will be headlined by minutes from the BoJ’s latest meeting after the central bank surprisingly loosened its yield curve control policy. Japan will also unveil June’s retail sales, industrial production, unemployment rate, and consumer confidence for July. In the meantime, India and South Korea will divulge PMI figures.

In Australia, the RBA is expected to raise its cash rate by 25bps following this month’s pause as the latest monthly inflation rate pointed to a marginal slowdown. Investors also await trade figures for June and July’s Ai Group Industry Index. New Zealand will divulge second-quarter labor data.