Week Ahead – August 7th

Next week, all attention will be focused on the US inflation report scheduled for Thursday, while the earnings season continues. In the US, investors will also be keeping a close eye on producer prices and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Additionally, important events include China’s inflation and trade data, GDPP growth figures for the UK and the Philippines, an interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of India, and inflation figures for Brazil and Mexico.

In the US, the flow of earnings releases is expected to slow down, but investors can still anticipate major reports from prominent companies such as The Walt Disney Co, AMC Entertainment, Novo Nordisk, Barrick Gold, Eli Lilly and Co, Take-Two Interactive Software, Twilio, and Upstart Holdings.

On the economic data front, all eyes will be on the CPI report scheduled for Thursday. Investors expect the inflation rate to accelerate to 3.3% from 3% in June, which would mark the first increase in headline inflation since June 2022, mainly reflecting base year effects from energy costs. The core rate is seen steady at 4.8%, remaining well above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. Other crucial economic releases to watch for include the preliminary estimate of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, producer prices, foreign trade data, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, and the government’s monthly budget statement.

Elsewhere in America, Canada foreign trade data; and Mexico and Brazil inflation rate will also be in the spotlight.

In the United Kingdom, the ONS will be publishing preliminary estimates for the second-quarter GDP, alongside reports on industrial production, construction output, and trade balance. Britain’s economy most likely sustained its growth momentum during the April to June period.

Elsewhere in Europe, the economic calendar will be soft, with investors awaiting the final CPI figures to confirm that Germany’s inflation rate slowed to 6.2% in July, while inflation in France moderated to a 17-month low of 4.3% and in Italy, it eased to a 15-month low. Conversely, the inflation rate in Russia is set to accelerate for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, Russia’s GDP likely rebounded in the second quarter, marking a turnaround from the contraction that started last year. Other important data include Germany’s industrial production, Switzerland’s unemployment rate, and Turkey’s industrial output and jobless rate.

In Asia, China will release its second batch of July economic data, which includes trade figures, inflation rates, and a collection of credit data, after last week’s PMI figures magnified the country’s struggle to recover from Covid lockdowns. In Japan, all eyes will be on the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions for insights on the bank’s decision to loosen its yield curve control policy. Also on the monetary policy front, the RBI is set to continue holding its tightening cycle, leaving interest rates steady, aligned with previous warnings that higher agricultural and energy commodities drive upside risks to the inflation rate. Elsewhere, South Korea will divulge trade figures and the Philippines will release its second-quarter GDP.

In Australia, investors await key forward-looking indicators, including August’s Westpac Consumer Confidence and July’s NAB Business Confidence, while New Zealand will release July’s manufacturing PMI.