Week Ahead – August 14th

Next week, investors will eagerly follow the FOMC minutes release for additional insights into the Fed’s plans for the remainder of the year. In the US, retail sales and industrial production will also be in the spotlight. Elsewhere, the upcoming week is poised to bring a flurry of significant economic releases, including China industrial production and retail sales; GDP and inflation for the Eurozone; Japan GDP growth and inflation; Germany economic sentiment; wholesale and consumer prices for India; inflation, unemployment and retail sales for the UK; Canada CPI; Australia unemployment data; and interest rate decisions from Norway, the Philippines and New Zealand.

In the US, investors will closely focus on the FOMC minutes for additional insights into the Fed’s plans for the remainder of the year, although Chair Powell said last month that decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Markets are currently pricing in an 89% probability of the Fed holding interest rates in September while the odds for a quarter point hike in November currently stand at about 32%. Meanwhile, the earnings season is drawing to a close but Home Depot, Cisco, Walmart, Deere & Co, Target and Applied Materials are among companies set to announce their second-quarter results. On the data front, projections indicate a more rapid 0.4% increase in retail sales and a rebound in industrial production following a decline in June. Other important releases include consumer inflation expectations, building permits, housing starts, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and the NAHB housing index.

Elsewhere in America, inflation rate in Canada is expected to accelerate to 3% from 2.8%. This follows a slowdown in inflation starting in July of the previous year, after reaching 1983-highs of 8.1% in June 2022. GDP growth rates for Colombia and Chile and inflation rate for Argentina are also due.

In the United Kingdom, the economic calendar is packed with key releases including unemployment figures, inflation data and retail sales. Figures are likely to show the UK’s inflation rate slowed to 6.8% in July, the lowest since February 2022 and retail sales probably declined after three consecutive months of increases. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 4% in the second quarter.

The Euro Area will publish a second estimate of Q2 GDP and the final reading of July’s inflation rate. At the same time, German investor morale is expected to remain little changed. Other key economic data include the Eurozone’s balance of trade and industrial production; Germany’s wholesale prices; Spain’s foreign trade; and Poland and Netherlands’ GDP figures. On the monetary policy front, the Norges Bank will most likely raise its key policy rate as inflation remains markedly above the target.

In Asia, key economic releases for Chinese for July continue with industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment data set to give more insights on the country’s lackluster economic recovery following a batch of already-released disappointing results for the period. Investors will also keep a close eye on fixed investment and housing price data amid fresh threats to the financial stability of property developers. In Japan, the spotlight will be on the second quarter’s GDP growth, set to hold its strong momentum, in addition to July’s inflation rate and balance of trade. Meanwhile, the inflation rate in India is set to accelerate above the RBI’s upper threshold of 6% amid higher energy and food costs. Elsewhere, Thailand and Malaysia will unveil GDP growth figures, while the central bank of the Philippines will meet to decide on monetary policy.

In Australia, investors await minutes from the RBA’s latest decision for insights on the central bank’s surprise rate hold. Australia will also share a batch of unemployment data for July. In the meantime, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to also hold borrowing costs unchanged.