Week Ahead – April 17th

In the US, the spotlight will be taken by earnings reports including BoA, IBM, Amex, J&J, P&G and Netflix. Elsewhere, investors will be closely watching CPI figures for the UK, Japan, Canada, South Africa, Malaysia, and New Zealand. Also, flash manufacturing and services PMIs are set to be released for the US, UK, Australia, France, Germany, and Euro Area. Finally, China will publish GDP growth, retail sales, and industrial production figures and Germany Zew Economic Sentiment Index.

The upcoming week will be much softer in terms of US economic data but jam-packed with high-profile earnings reports providing insight into corporate America’s performance and fuelling the debate on whether the world’s largest economy is heading toward a recession or is already in one. Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson, Goldman Sachs, Netflix, IBM, American Express, Blackstone, and Procter & Gamble are some of the most prominent companies to report. Also, March figures on new residential construction and building permits will be reçeased, offering further clues into the real estate market’s health. Finally, S&P Global divulges April purchasing manager surveys measuring US manufacturing and services sector activity. Investors will also closely watch the usual weekly data on claims for unemployment insurance for signs of a cooling labor market. Elsewhere in America, Canada will publish the March CPI and February retail sales data.

In Europe, the ECB will post its monetary policy meeting accounts. In March, regulators delivered a half-percentage-point rate hike, and markets expect two more 25 bps rate increases by mid-year to combat inflation. On the macro front, consumer confidence in the Euro Area is likely to improve further to the highest in 14 months, and investor sentiment in Germany’s economy is set to recover as fears of a banking crisis fade. Flash PMI figures should point to a fourth consecutive monthly expansion in private sector business activity, the strongest since May 2022, as manufacturing production probably picked up slightly, and the services sector growth remained robust. Traders also await the release of Euro Area 2022 public finances data, final inflation rate, and external trade figures; Germany’s producer prices and Zew Economic Sentiment Index; and France’s business survey.

In the United Kingdom, the economic calendar will cover key reports on unemployment, inflation, retail trade, Gfk consumer confidence, and S&P Global PMIs. The annual inflation rate is expected to ease to a 9-month low after a surprise acceleration in February, while unemployment is projected to edge up and retail sales to fall. The PMI survey should point to another month of solid rises in the service sector and a softer contraction in manufacturing one.

In Asia, a busy week will be headlined by Chinese GDP growth figures for the first quarter, set to quantify the initial extent of the country’s reopening. Other key releases will include industrial production, retail sales, and the unemployment rate for March. At the same time, weak inflation data and mixed industrial activity raised some bets that the PBoC may cut its Loan Prime rates. In Japan, investors anticipate inflation and trade data for March, followed by April PMI figures. Elsewhere, Indonesia will decide on its monetary policy, and Malaysia will share its CPI print for March. In Australia, minutes from the RBA’s latest meeting will offer insight into the central bank’s decision to pause tightening at 3.6%. Flash PMI data for April will also be among the keenly awaited Aussie reports. Elsewhere, New Zealand will release its first-quarter inflation rate.