As April rolls around, investors look for more insight into the health of the world’s largest economy. In the US, the spotlight will be taken by the inflation rate, and retail sales, followed by FOMC Minutes, industrial production, producer prices, and Michigan consumer sentiment. Elsewhere, China will be releasing inflation rate and trade data, and the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Korea will be deciding on the course of monetary policy. Also, India, Brazil, and Russia are set to publish CPI numbers.
In the US, the Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer and producer prices index will fuel the debate on whether inflation peaked or could still surprise on the upside. Headline inflation likely rose 0.3% month-on-month in March, pushing the annual rate to 5.2% from 6%. Meanwhile, core inflation probably increased 0.3% over the previous month, ending in the annual rate remaining at 5.6%. Producer prices were likely flat month-on-month, resulting in the yearly rate easing to 3.1% from 4.6%, which could mark the lowest reading since March/February 2021. At the same time, core producer inflation is projected to grow 0.3% over the same period, ending in the annual rate decrease to 3.3% from 4.4%. The week also features the retail sales report, with forecasts pointing to an 0.4% month-on-month decline. Additionally, all eyes will be on a preliminary reading for the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment and inflation estimates for April. Finally, the FOMC will release its meeting minutes. With the US central bank anticipated to end its tightening cycle in May, economists and traders are awaiting the minutes for further clues into the terminal level. Elsewhere in America, the Bank of Canada is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
In the United Kingdom, the ONS will be publishing monthly GDP figures, alongside industrial production, construction output, and trade balance. Britain’s economy most likely grew by 0.2% in February, following a 0.3% expansion in January and industrial production rebounded.
In the Euro Area, industrial production is set to grow for the second month in February while retail sales are seen falling after a small recovery in January. At the same time, updated CPI reports are expected to confirm a slowdown in inflation across the board, particularly in Germany, Spain, and France. Investors will also keep an eye on Germany’s wholesale prices and current account; Italy’s industrial activity, and Turkey’s unemployment rate and industrial output.
In Asia, the week will be headlined by China’s trade balance, inflation rate, and loan growth for March. Key Chinese data is expected to move markets as recent PMI figures raised uncertainty over the impact of the country’s economic reopening on growth. In Japan, investors await consumer confidence figures for March. Meanwhile, slower food inflation in emerging Asia is expected to lower India’s retail inflation rate back to the RBI’s upper target band, one week after the central bank paused its tightening cycle. Asia’s second-largest economy will also unveil industrial production for February. Elsewhere, South Korea will release fresh unemployment figures and decide on its monetary policy, while Singapore’s GDP growth is expected to have moderated in Q1.
In Australia, minutes from the RBA’s latest meeting will give insights on the central bank’s choice to pause tightening at 3.6%. Markets also await the release of key forward-looking indicators, including Westpac consumer confidence data for April and NAB Business Confidence for March, in addition to unemployment figures for March. In the meantime, New Zealand will unveil the inflation rate for Q1.