Week Ahead

The US is releasing the second estimate of Q1 GDP, alongside durable goods orders, personal income and outlays, and PCE price index; while President Biden’s FY2022 budget is also highly anticipated. Elsewhere, central banks in South Korea, Indonesia and New Zealand will be deciding on monetary policy, while other GDP updates to follow include those from Germany, France, Mexico and Singapore. Investors also eye the publication of the Eurozone business survey, China industrial profits, Japan unemployment rate and Australia’s first-quarter construction output.

It will be a relatively busy week regarding US economic data. The second estimate of first-quarter GDP is set to confirm the economic recovery gathered pace during the January-March period, helped by the country’s re-opening efforts, the government’s massive stimulus package and one of the world’s most successful vaccination campaigns. Other notable publications include: personal income and outlays; PCE price index; durable goods orders; CB consumer confidence; new and pending home sales; Chicago Fed National Activity Index; Chicago PMI; Case-Shiller home prices; the advance estimates of goods trade balance and wholesale inventories; and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

On the political front, US President Biden’s full fiscal 2022 budget proposal will be released on May 28 and will provide detailed information on the programs Biden wants to expand or cut – from foreign aid to immigration and policing.

Elsewhere in America, important data to follow include Canada average weekly earnings, budget balance and the preliminary reading of manufacturing sales; Mexico final estimate of first-quarter GDP, trade balance, unemployment rate and economic activity; and Brazil jobless rate and current account. Colombia’s central bank will be deciding on interest rates.

Across the Atlantic, it is a quiet week ahead on the European economic calendar. Germany will be releasing final first-quarter GDP data, which will probably confirm Europe’s largest economy slipped back into contraction after two consecutive periods of growth, mainly due to a decline in private consumption. Still, the nation’s business sentiment is seen brightening to a two-year high in May; while consumer morale is likely to hit a seven-month high heading into June. Other key data to follow include: Eurozone, Italy and Spain business survey; UK CBI distributive trades, public sector net borrowing and car production; Germany import prices; France final first-quarter GDP, monthly jobless report, household consumption, inflation rate, business and consumer morale; Switzerland KOF leading indicators and external trade data; and Turkey business sentiment and foreign trade.

Meanwhile, China will publish updated figures for January-April’s industrial profits, while investors in Japan will turn their attention to unemployment rate and Tokyo inflation. Australia’s first-quarter construction output and private capital expenditure will also be keenly watched.

Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region include: South Korea business and consumer morale; Thailand, Malaysia and New Zealand foreign trade; Taiwan industrial output, retail trade and unemployment data; and the final estimate of Singapore’s first-quarter GDP data. Central banks in South Korea, Indonesia and New Zealand will probably leave interest rates at record-low levels.