Week Ahead

The US and UK are releasing key inflation reports next week, with investors looking forward to see if the recent price pressures show any signs of abating amid the economic growth slowdown. Other than that, important data to follow include retail sales and industrial production figures from the US and China, and employment reports from the UK and Australia. The Eurozone and Japan will be releasing foreign trade data, while New Zealand publishes second-quarter GDP growth.

It is a relatively busy week ahead in the US on the economic data front. The consumer price report for August will probably show a modest slowdown in inflation rate from July’s 13-year high of 5.4 percent. Investors will be paying special attention to any sign of growing inflationary pressure that could impact the pace of Fed tapering. At the same time, the preliminary estimate of Michigan consumer sentiment for September should point to a slight improvement in morale after falling unexpectedly in August to its lowest level in a decade. Elsewhere, retail sales and industrial production numbers for August are seen pointing to a decline in domestic trade and modest factory activity growth.

Other publications to watch for are foreign trade prices, business inventories, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, overall net capital flows, and the government’s monthly budget statement.

Elsewhere in America, important data to follow include Canada inflation data, housing starts, and ADP employment change; Brazil business morale; Argentina inflation rate and second-quarter current account; and Peru monthly GDP and unemployment rate.

Across the Atlantic, Britain’s economic calendar is packed with key updates on inflation data, unemployment and wage growth, and retail trade. Consumer prices in the UK likely rose 2.9% in August, the largest increase since January 2018, adding to concerns about rising inflation and early tapering by the Bank of England even as the economic recovery from Covid-19 slows. Elsewhere in Europe, important data to follow include Eurozone foreign trade, industrial activity, construction output and wage growth; Germany wholesale prices; Sweden inflation rate; Netherlands and Greece unemployment rates; and Turkey industrial activity, retail trade and current account.

In the Asia-Pacific region, all eyes turn to China’s industrial production, retail trade, fixed asset investment, and house prices. The country’s output expansion and domestic trade growth likely eased further in August, in another sign that the pace of recovery is slowing in the world’s second-largest economy.

Meanwhile, Japan is releasing data on machinery orders, trade balance, producer prices and the final reading of industrial activity. In Australia, investors will turn their attention to employment figures, Westpac consumer confidence, NAB business sentiment, and second-quarter house prices.

Other highlights include: New Zealand second-quarter GDP and current account; India consumer and wholesale prices; South Korea jobless rate; Indonesia trade balance; Hong Kong unemployment and jobless rate; and Singapore non-oil exports.



Categories: Markten