Week Ahead

In the US, the inflation rate data will be closely watched followed by several speeches by the Fed officials and midterm elections. In Europe, investors will monitor the UK Q3 GDP growth rate and retail sales for Euro Area. Finally, China is set to publish foreign trade and inflation rate figures and Indonesia, Malaysia, and Philippines’ GDP rates for Q3.

In the US, October inflation report will be closely watched. The headline inflation is seen rising 0.7% month-on-month, resulting in the annual rate of inflation slowing to 8.0% from 8.2%. Core inflation likely rose 0.5% over the previous month, ending in the annual rate easing to 6.5% from 6.6%. Also, several Fed speeches are highly anticipated for further insight into the central bank’s tightening plan. The upcoming week also features the Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary reading for November. Furthermore, the United States will hold midterm elections in which control of the Senate and House of Representatives and state legislatures and governorships will be at stake.

Elsewhere in America, Brazil will report retail sales, inflation, and business confidence figures. Mexico will post consumer confidence, inflation, and industrial production numbers.

The United Kingdom will publish its preliminary estimate of third-quarter GDP growth, along with higher frequency industrial production, foreign trade, and construction output. Britain’s economy most likely contracted in Q3, after five consecutive quarters of growth. The monthly GDP contraction is projected to double in September from August, and the outlook for the next months doesn’t show a glimpse of hope.

Elsewhere in Europe, retail sales in the Euro Area probably recovered in September from a three-month fall and industrial production in Germany is also forecast to rebound slightly. Other data to follow include: Construction PMIs; Germany final inflation figures and current account; France balance of trade; Russia inflation rate; Switzerland unemployment rate; and Turkey industrial activity and unemployment rate.

In Asia, all eyes are on the October CPI print from China, expected to show that inflation has slowed after hitting a two-year high in the prior month. Fresh trade data is also awaited for the period, with both import and export growth set to slow. In Japan, investors will closely watch the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions after Governor Kuroda hinted at the possibility of making the JGB yield curve control policy more flexible, marking an unusual shift toward policy normalization. Japan’s current account for September is also awaited. In India, key releases include the trade balance for October and industrial production for September. Elsewhere, investors await Q3 GDP data for Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines and unemployment figures for South Korea.

In Australia, the Westpac consumer confidence for November and NAB business confidence for October take the center stage. In neighboring New Zealand, the BusinessNZ PMI for October is awaited.