All eyes turn to the US jobs report due Friday, which will probably point to a continued recovery in the labor market. Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Chair Powell testifies before Congress, while a highly anticipated OPEC+ meeting is expected to offer guidance into the coalition’s crude output plans. Investors also await key data including worldwide manufacturing and services PMIs, Q3 GDP figures for Australia, India, Canada, Brazil and Turkey, the Eurozone inflation report, and Japan industrial output and retail trade.
The US employment report will probably show the world’s largest economy added another 550 thousand jobs in November, an 11th consecutive month of gains, due to strong demand for labor and the ongoing economic rebound. In addition, the unemployment rate is seen falling to a new pandemic low of 4.5 percent. Elsewhere, the ISM PMI surveys for November should point to solid rates of expansion in both the manufacturing and service sectors. Other notable publications are factory orders, construction spending, ADP employment change, pending home sales, Case-Shiller home prices, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, Chicago PMI, and the final readings of Markit PMIs.
In the meantime, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will testify on the coronavirus and CARES Act before the US Congress Tuesday and Wednesday. This will be the first time markets will hear from Powell after President Joe Biden renominated him for a second term as the head of the central bank.
Elsewhere in America, key data to follow include Canada employment figures, third-quarter GDP growth and current account, Ivey and Markit PMI surveys, building permits and Markit Manufacturing PMI; Mexico business morale, jobless rate and Markit Manufacturing PMI; Brazil third-quarter GDP figures, foreign trade, unemployment rate, industrial production, and Markit PMIs; Argentina industrial output; and Colombia and Chile labor market indicators.
Across the Atlantic, the flash estimate of the November consumer price report will be published for the Eurozone, which will be scrutinized for clues on central bank policy guidance. Annual inflation rate likely accelerated to 4.4 percent, the highest since 1991, adding to concerns over price pressure amid an uncertain economic outlook due to fresh COVID-induced restrictions across the region. Investors will also keep an eye on the final Markit PMI surveys for the Euro Area, Germany and France, while Italy and Spain will publish their preliminary estimates.
Other key economic data to follow include: Eurozone jobs report, retail sales, business survey and producer inflation; Spain business morale; Switzerland KOF leading indicators and retail trade; and Turkey Q3 GDP, inflation data and foreign trade. In the UK, investors will monitor final Markit PMI data, alongside Bank of England’s monetary indicators and Nationwide Housing prices.
In China, traders will turn their attention to NBS and Caixin PMI updates for November, with forecasts pointing to ongoing weakness in the country’s manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, key data to watch for in Japan include industrial output, retail trade, consumer confidence, jobless rate, and housing starts; while Australia will see the publication of third-quarter GDP figures, current account and companies’ profits, alongside Ai Group manufacturing and construction indexes, trade balance, building permits, and home loans.
Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: India third-quarter GDP, trade balance and Markit PMIs; New Zealand business confidence; South Korea inflation, trade balance, industrial activity, retail trade and Markit manufacturing PMI; Thailand inflation and manufacturing production; and Indonesia consumer prices.
Elsewhere, the OPEC+ alliance will meet on December 1-2 to decide on whether to raise output by 400,000 bdp in January, after some members warned that the announced coordinated release of oil reserves by major energy-consuming nations led by the US might prompt the group to hold back crude supply.