Minutes from the Federal Reserve, ECB, RBA and RBI will be in focus next week, while central banks in China, Turkey and Indonesia will be deciding on interest rates. On the economic data front, flash PMI surveys for the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and Australia could provide an insight into the early impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy. Other figures to follow include US housing data; UK jobs report, inflation and retail trade data; Japan Q4 GDP and trade balance; and Australia employment numbers.
In the US, investor focus turns to the FOMC minutes due Wednesday on hopes it might clarify policymakers’ views on the monetary policy path. The Federal Reserve held the target range for its federal funds rate at 1.5-1.75 percent during its January meeting, and signaled there would be no changes in interest rates until the end of the year. Regarding the economic calendar, notable publications are flash Markit PMIs, housing starts and building permits, existing home sales, producer prices, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and NAHB Housing Market Index.
Elsewhere in America, key economic data to follow include Canada inflation, retail sales, new housing prices and manufacturing sales. Brazil is due to publish IPCA mid-month inflation, business confidence, net payrolls and current account; while Argentina will see fresh figures for economic activity and trade balance. Peru fourth-quarter GDP figures will also be in the spotlight.
Meanwhile, it’s a particularly busy week ahead on the UK economic calendar, with flash Markit PMIs expected to show the country’s manufacturing sector dipped into contraction again in February while the services sector growth slowed from a 16-month high. The jobless rate is expected to hold steady at its lowest since 1975 and wages to rise the least in 15 months. Investors will also focus on inflation data, retail trade, CBI factory orders and public sector net borrowing.
Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB account of January’s policy meeting will be keenly watched, alongside flash Markit PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany and France. The bloc’s manufacturing sector is seen contracting in February as the coronavirus outbreak hurt demand in China. Traders will also keep an eye on: the Eurozone flash consumer confidence, construction output and current account; Germany investor and consumer morale; Switzerland industrial production and foreign trade; Sweden and Ireland inflation rates; Spain trade balance; Poland employment growth; and Turkey consumer survey. The Central Bank of Turkey will be deciding on interest rates Wednesday.
China’s latest loan prime rate publication will be highly anticipated, as the country’s authorities are likely to unveil more stimulus measures amid virus impact fears. Investors will also be waiting for house price index and monetary indicators. Meanwhile in Japan, investors will focus on the preliminary estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, with forecasts pointing to the first contraction in the economy in over a year. Other important releases for Japan include: trade balance, consumer inflation, machinery orders and flash Jibun Bank PMIs.
The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of India will be publishing the minutes of their last monetary policy meetings. Other key data for Australia include employment figures, fourth-quarter wage growth and flash CommBank PMIs.
Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: Thailand fourth-quarter GDP and trade balance; Taiwan final fourth-quarter GDP and export orders; Hong Kong unemployment and inflation; Malaysia inflation; Singapore non-oil exports; and Indonesia trade balance. Bank Indonesia will provide an update on monetary policy Thursday.