Week Ahead

Next week, flash PMI surveys for the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and Australia will give an insight about the state of the global economic recovery, while central banks in China, Philippines, Thailand, Switzerland, Mexico and South Africa will be deciding on monetary policy. Other important releases to follow include US final Q4 GDP, durable goods orders, and personal income and outlays; UK unemployment, retail trade and inflation data; and Eurozone and South Korea consumer morale.

Investors in the US will turn their attention to the flash Markit PMI survey, with forecasts suggesting the manufacturing sector expanded in March at the fastest pace on record and service activity growth accelerated to a new six-and-a-half-year high. At the same time, durable goods orders should rise for a 10th consecutive month in February, but at the softest rate in six months; while personal spending and outlays are seen dropping after January’s solid increases.

Other notable publications include the final estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, alongside existing and new home sales, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, fourth-quarter current account, the advance estimates of goods trade balance and wholesale inventories, and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Elsewhere in America, important data to follow include Canada budget balance; Mexico unemployment rate, trade balance, retail sales and economic activity; and Brazil current account. Central banks in Mexico and Colombia will be deciding on monetary policy.

Across the Atlantic, it is a particularly busy week ahead on the UK economic calendar, with flash Markit PMIs expected to show Britain’s private sector returning to growth in March due to a rebound in the services sector. The jobless rate is expected to rise further to its highest since the August-October 2015 period and wages to rise the most since July-September 2007. Investors will also focus on inflation data, retail trade, CBI factory orders and distributive trades.

Elsewhere in Europe, all eyes will be on the flash Markit surveys for the Eurozone, Germany and France, with the bloc’s private sector output expected to remain in contraction territory amid a continued decline in the services sector output. At the same time, consumer confidence in the Euro Area is likely to improve to a three-month high in March. Other key economic data include: Germany and Turkey consumer and business morale; France industry confidence and monthly jobless data; Spain and the Netherlands final fourth-quarter GDP numbers; and Switzerland current account. Central banks in Switzerland, Czech Republic, Hungary and Iceland will be deciding on interest rates.

In Asia, the People’s Bank of China will provide an update to its new loan prime rate (LPR) on Monday, but no changes are expected. Meanwhile, investors in Japan turn their attention to the Jibun Bank’s flash PMI survey and Tokyo inflation; while Australia’s Markit PMIs will also be keenly watched.

Other highlights include: South Korea consumer sentiment; New Zealand trade balance; Thailand, Philippines and South Africa interest rate decisions; Malaysia inflation rate; and Taiwan unemployment data.