Week Ahead

A raft of upcoming data in the US including consumer confidence and personal consumption expenditures should show how the US economy is responding to Fed’s aggressive tightening. Also, the stock market is set to record its worst first half of the year in a decade. In Europe, attention will be given to the ECB’s forum on central banking with speeches from Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, and BoE Governor Bailey. Also, key reports on inflation and unemployment will be released for the Eurozone, including Germany, Italy, and France.

It will be a busy week in US with highlights including June consumer confidence, durable goods orders and personal consumption expenditures report. Personal income and spending likely continued to slow down in May as the cost of everyday purchases keeps trending higher. The annual core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, is expected to ease for a third month to a 6-month low. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is seen pointing to the slowest growth in factory activity since July 2020. Other notable publications are goods trade balance, pending home sales, Case-Shiller home prices, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, and final GDP growth estimates for Q1.

Elsewhere in America, key data to follow include Canada’s monthly GDP; Mexico foreign trade, unemployment rate, business morale and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI; and Brazil jobless and industrial data.

In Europe, attention will be given to the forum on central banking organized by the ECB where Fed Chairman Powell, ECB President Lagarde, and BoE Governor Bailey will be speaking. On the economic data front, key reports on inflation and unemployment will be released for the Eurozone, including Germany, Italy and France. Price growth across the 19 countries sharing the euro is set to hit another record high of 8.3% in June, while unemployment rate probably was unchanged at a record low. Other key data includes: Euro Area business survey; Germany Gfk consumer confidence, retail sales and import prices; Sweden interest rate decision; Switzerland KOF leading indicators, retail sales and manufacturing PMI; and Turkey foreign trade. A batch of economic data from Russia including industrial production, retail sales, unemployment and manufacturing PMI will also be in the spotlight. The United Kingdom will be publishing the final estimates of first-quarter GDP growth and Markit Manufacturing PMI, alongside business investment and current account, Bank of England’s monetary indicators, and Nationwide housing prices.

In Asia, it will be a busy week for Japan, with the release of the Tankan Large Manufacturers Index, consumer confidence indicator, retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, and the unemployment rate. In China, two separate manufacturing PMI readings will likely show that the sector remains in contractionary territory, due to the prolonged effect of work stoppages and despite the improvement in the pandemic situation. Elsewhere, Indonesia will publish its June inflation rate, which is seen overshooting the central bank’s target ceiling of 4%.. Also noteworthy is the release of South Korea’s consumer and business morale indicators, and India’s manufacturing PMI and foreign trade balance for June.