Week Ahead

Minutes from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank will be in the spotlight next week, while South Korea’s policymakers meet to set interest rates. On the economic data front, the US is releasing the second estimate of Q3 GDP, alongside durable goods orders, personal income and outlays, and PCE price index. Other GDP updates to follow include those from Germany, France, Singapore, Taiwan and Mexico. Elsewhere, flash PMI surveys for the US, UK, Eurozone and Australia will be keenly watched, as well as the Eurozone business survey and China industrial profits.

Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira 11/20/2020 8:03:16 PM

In the US, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting are due Wednesday, with investors hoping they might provide some clarity on policymakers’ next move. In November, the Fed took a wait-and-see approach amid uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the US election, but reiterated its commitment to use its full range of tools to support the US economy.

Meanwhile, it is a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front. The second estimate of third-quarter GDP is set to confirm the economy rebounded at a record pace from a historic contraction seen in the three months to June, following the relaxation of coronavirus-induced restrictions. Other notable publications include: personal income and outlays; PCE price index; durable goods orders; flash Markit PMI survey; CB consumer confidence; new home sales; Chicago Fed National Activity Index; Case-Shiller home prices; the advance estimates of goods trade balance and wholesale inventories; and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

US stock markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving Day, and will close early at 1:00 pm ET on Friday.

Elsewhere in America, key economic data to follow include Mexico’s final estimate of third-quarter GDP, trade balance, retail sales, unemployment and economic activity; Brazil current account, net payrolls and jobless rate; and Chile unemployment.

Across the Atlantic, talks on post-Brexit trade deal continue, with Britain and the EU set to reach a deal early next week despite their differences on key issues such as fishing, level playing field guarantees and enforcement of the agreement.

In the UK, flash Markit PMI numbers are expected to show the manufacturing sector stabilized in November following five consecutive months of expansion while the service sector fell back into contraction. Investors will also keep an eye on CBI distributive trades, Nationwide housing prices and car production.

Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB will probably flag further monetary easing when it publishes the account of October’s policy meeting on Thursday, while Sweden’s central bank will be deciding on interest rates. Flash Markit PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany and France will also be in the spotlight, with the bloc’s business activity set to slip back into contraction territory amid rising COVID-19 cases and new lockdowns across the continent. Also, final estimates of third-quarter GDP for some European countries will be released, including updated data for Germany and France. Other key economic data include: Eurozone business survey and monetary indicators; Germany Ifo business climate and Gfk consumer confidence; France inflation rate, household consumption, business and consumer morale; and Turkey industry sentiment.

In Asia, China publishes industrial profits while investors in Japan turn their attention to Tokyo inflation and the final estimate of September’s leading economic index. Elsewhere, the Bank of Korea will be holding its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, but no changes are expected. On the economic data front, important releases include consumer and business confidence.

Traders in Australia will be waiting for flash Markit PMIs, construction work done and private capital expenditure; while New Zealand’s retail sales and trade balance will also be keenly watched.

Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region include: Singapore Q3 final GDP, inflation and manufacturing production; Taiwan final Q3 GDP figures, unemployment and industrial output; Malaysia consumer prices; Thailand foreign trade and industrial production.