Week Ahead

The earnings season in the US would enter a busy phase with financials and several large companies due to report. The week will be also busy with data releases including flash services and manufacturing PMI’ for major economies, several housing indicators for US and China GDP growth for Q1. Meanwhile, a war in Ukraine will again keep the commodity prices volatile.

The US earnings season enters a busy phase with Bank of America, J&J, IBM, Netflix, Procter & Gamble, Tesla, United Airlines, AT&T and American Express due to report. General forecasts point to a nearly 5% annual earnings growth this reporting season. Traders will also keep a close eye on speeches from several Fed officials, including the appearance of Fed Chair Powell at the Volcker Alliance and Penn Institute for Urban Research Special Briefing and at the IMF Debate on the Global Economy, both on Thursday. On the economic data front, flash S&P Global PMIs will provide an update on the business activity in April. Other releases include the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and several housing indicators – the NAHB housing index, housing starts, building permits and existing home sales.

Elsewhere in America, fresh CPI figures for Canada will probably show the inflation rate accelerated to 6.1% last month, which would be the highest since June of 1991. It will also be interesting to follow Canada retail sales.

In the United Kingdom, retail sales are seen falling for the second straight month in March and flash Markit PMI figures for April will probably show a slowdown in both manufacturing and services activity. The Gfk consumer confidence indicator is also expected to drop further to a 17-month low. Elsewhere in Europe, flash Markit PMI figures for the Eurozone, Germany and France will also be in the spotlight, with forecasts suggesting the bloc’s factory activity growth expanded the least since last November and the services sector slowed from a 4-month high. Traders also await the release of the Euro Area 2021 public finances data, final inflation figures, flash consumer confidence, industrial output and foreign trade; Germany producer prices; France business survey; and Turkey consumer confidence.

Investors will also monitor a slew of Chinese data released on Monday, namely first-quarter GDP figures, and March data for industrial production, retail sales, and the job market. These will offer new insight on how the war in Ukraine and the worst virus wave since the onset of the pandemic is affecting the world’s 2nd largest economy. Later in the week, the People’s Bank of China will decide on its Loan Prime Rate (LPR) after leaving its Medium-Term Lending Facility Rate, which is seen as a guide for the LPR, unchanged for a third month in a row on April 15th, despite Beijing’s pleads for more stimulus.

Also, monetary policy meeting will be held by Bank Indonesia, which is expected to keep its interest rates on record lows. Also, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Japan will release external trade data. Lastly, Japan is set to publish March data for consumer prices, as well as February industrial production figures.