Week Ahead

The spotlight again next week will be taken by the developments around the war in Ukraine and central banks’ tightening plans. The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are set to publish minutes from the last meetings while Australia, Canada and India will hold monetary policy meetings.

In the US, March FOMC meeting minutes will take the spotlight, with traders paying special attention to any details on the Fed’s plans to reduce its balance sheet. Any additional notes on the economic outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates will also be scrutinized. Meanwhile, several Fed officials including Fed Governor Lael Brainard will make speeches. On the data front, the most important releases include ISM non-manufacturing PMI, the final S&P Global services PMI, factory orders, trade data and wholesale inventories.

Elsewhere in America, it will be interesting to follow: Canada unemployment rate and employment change, exports and imports and Ivey PMI; Mexico inflation rate, consumer confidence, gross fixed investment; and Brazil services PMI and inflation rate.

In Europe, the ECB publishes its monetary policy meeting accounts. In March, policymakers surprisingly sped up the asset purchase schedule for the coming months and said that the APP could end in the third quarter if the medium-term inflation outlook will not weaken. On the economic calendar, Germany industrial production and factory orders are seen falling and France industrial output growth is likely to ease from a 1-year high. Other key highlights include: Eurozone producer prices and retail sales; Germany foreign trade and current account; Russia Q4 GDP and inflation figures; Switzerland unemployment and Turkey inflation. Also, updates on S&P Global services and composite PMIs will be published for several European countries. In the UK, the economic calendar will be soft, with final Markit services and composite PMIs, construction PMI, Halifax house price index and new car sales.

In Asia and Oceania, highly anticipated central bank meetings from Australia and India are set to take place. Both central banks have been keeping their benchmark interest rates at record lows even though the inflationary pressure intensified. Meanwhile, services PMI will be published for China, Japan, and Australia and manufacturing PMI for India. Elsewhere, the Philippines and South Korea release consumer price indexes.