Week Ahead

Next week will see the final US presidential debate between Trump and Biden, while the third-quarter earnings season continues, with companies such as IBM, Netflix and Tesla reporting their results. Elsewhere, flash PMI surveys for the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and Australia will be keenly watched, while central banks in China, Russia and Turkey will be deciding on monetary policy. Other key data to follow include: US building permits and housing starts, and existing home sales; UK inflation data and retail trade; Eurozone consumer confidence; China Q1 GDP figures; and Japan trade balance and inflation.

The second and final debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden is set to take place next week, with main topics including "Fighting COVID-19," "Climate Change," and "National Security."

Investors in the US will turn their attention to October’s Markit PMI survey, with forecasts suggesting the manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest pace since January 2019 as the country continues to recover from the pandemic shock, while service activity growth should remain close to August’s 17-month high. Other notable publications include building permits and housing starts, existing home sales, homebuilder sentiment, and the weekly jobless report. Key speeches from Federal Reserve officials will also be in the spotlight, amid hopes they might hint at future monetary policy action.

On the corporate front, the second-quarter earnings season continues, with earnings reports to watch including IBM, Netflix, Tesla, Verizon, Amazon, Coca-Cola Co, Gilead Science, Union Pacific Corp and American Express.

Elsewhere in America, key economic data to follow include Canada retail trade, inflation and new housing prices, Mexico unemployment rate, mid-month inflation and retail sales, and Brazil current account and mid-month inflation.

Across the Atlantic, the UK economic calendar is packed with key updates on inflation data, retail sales, consumer confidence, CBI factory orders and business optimism, and public sector net borrowing. Also, the flash Markit PMI survey will probably show Britain’s private sector growth slowed further in October as new Covid-19 curbs were imposed.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone’s flash Markit PMIs should point to a renewed contraction in the bloc’s private sector output as several countries across the region were forced to impose tougher restrictions due to a resurgence in coronavirus cases. At the same time, consumer morale in the Euro Area is seen weakening further in October. Other important releases include Eurozone construction output and current account; Germany GfK Consumer Confidence and producer prices; France business survey; Spain and Switzerland foreign trade data; Poland labor market figures; and Turkey consumer morale. Also, central banks in Turkey, Russia, Hungary and Ukraine will be deciding on monetary policy.

In Asia, all eyes turn to China’s third-quarter GDP, alongside September’s industrial production, retail sales, unemployment rate, fixed asset investment and house price index. Markets expect a 5.2 percent growth in the three months to September, faster than the second quarter’s 3.2 percent and compared to a record contraction in the January-March period, as domestic demand continued to recover and key trade partners reopened for business. Also, the People’s Bank of China will provide an update on its new loan prime rate (LPR) on Tuesday, which was set at 3.85 percent on September 21th. Meanwhile in Japan, the Jibun Bank will be publishing its flash PMIs for September. Other key data include trade balance and inflation rate.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will be releasing the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting. Investors in Australia will also turn their attention to Markit flash PMIs for October as Victoria state eased social distancing restrictions in mid-September. Across the Tasman Sea, New Zealand is releasing third-quarter inflation rate, services NZ PSI and NZIER business confidence.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: Hong Kong unemployment and inflation rate; Taiwan export orders and industrial output; Thailand trade balance; and Singapore and Malaysia consumer prices.