Week Ahead

Third-quarter earnings season gets underway next week, with updates expected from health care giant Johnson & Johnson and major banks such JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo.
At the same time, Brexit talks continue ahead of a EU summit on Thursday, while the virtual WBG/IMF Annual Meetings are also in the spotlight. On the economic data front, important releases to follow include US retail sales and industrial production; UK jobs report; Eurozone industrial output; China inflation and trade balance; Australia employment data and consumer morale; and India consumer and wholesale prices. Central bank meetings will be held in South Korea, Indonesia and Singapore.

The World Bank Group/IMF Annual Meetings will take place fully virtually this year, with finance ministers and officials from around the world set to review the global response to the pandemic and economic recovery prospects.

In the US, retail sales and industrial production numbers for September are seen pointing to modest growth amid the ongoing COVID-19 crisis and a lack of government support. In addition, the preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment for October will likely show a slight improvement in morale, while September’s inflation rate will probably accelerate to the highest since March. Other important publications are producer and foreign trade prices, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and business inventories.

Meanwhile, the third-quarter earnings season will kick off, with reports from health care giant Johnson & Johnson, and big banks including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup reporting.

Elsewhere in America, key data to follow include Canada manufacturing sales and ADP Employment Change; Mexico industrial output; Brazil business morale; Peru monthly GDP figures and unemployment rate; and Argentina inflation rate.

Across the Atlantic, informal Brexit talks will resume in Brussels next week after the UK and the EU pledged to reach an agreement on their future relationship by October 15th when a highly-anticipated European Council meeting starts. PM Boris Johnson’s government remains committed to trying to agree a FTA, and warned that it would start working on no-deal planning if there is no consensus before the summit. Meanwhile, the UK economic calendar will be light, with only the jobs report on the schedule.

Elsewhere in Europe, market watchers will be monitoring data on the Eurozone industrial output and foreign trade. The bloc’s industrial activity growth is seen slowing sharply in August, suggesting the bloc’s economic recovery might be running out of steam. Other highlights include: Germany investor morale and wholesale inflation; Italy trade balance and industrial orders; Turkey current account, unemployment rate, industrial and retail trade data; Sweden jobless rate and inflation; and the Netherlands unemployment.

In Asia, China will be publishing consumer and producer prices for September, with markets expecting a slowdown in consumer inflation to the lowest since February 2019 while producer prices will probably continue to drop. The country’s trade balance will also be in the spotlight, with forecasts pointing to a rise in both exports and imports. Other important releases include monetary indicators, foreign direct investment and vehicle sales. In Japan, key data include machinery orders, producer prices, tertiary industry index, and the final reading of August’s industrial production.

Investors in Australia will turn their attention to employment figures, Westpac consumer confidence, and HIA new home sales. Across the Tasman Sea, New Zealand holds its general election on October 17th, with the ruling Labour Party poised for a big win as it enjoys a double-digit lead over the main opposition party according to polls.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: India consumer and wholesale prices, industrial production and the final estimate of September’s trade figures; South Korea interest rate decision and unemployment; Singapore third-quarter GDP advance estimate, trade balance and monetary policy statement; Indonesia interest rate decision, trade balance and business confidence; and Malaysia industrial production.

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