Week Ahead

In the US, inflation rate and job openings will be in the spotlight next week. The ECB will also hold its monetary policy meeting, with markets expecting no major changes in the current policy stance but looking for clues on when more stimulus will be added through the pandemic emergency purchase programme. In the UK, a new round of Brexit talks will resume next week after negotiations in August ended without any progress on key issues. Other important data to follow include China trade balance and inflation rate; UK monthly GDP figures; and India industrial production.

In the US, the consumer price report for August is set to highlight a further recovery in inflation rate from May’s four-and-a-half-year low as demand continues to rebound from the coronavirus shock. At the same time, investors will focus on the latest weekly claims report for further evidence the labor market continues its recovery. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level since the effects of the pandemic started to be felt back in March. Other notable publications include producer prices, JOLTs job openings, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, the government’s monthly budget statement and the final reading of wholesale inventories.

Elsewhere in America, the Bank of Canada will probably leave interest rates at the current level when they meet on Wednesday. Important data to follow include Canada housing starts, Mexico inflation rate and industrial output, and Brazil consumer prices, retail trade and car production.

Markets in the US and Canada will be closed on Monday for the labor day holiday.

In the UK, a new round of Brexit talks will resume next week after negotiations in August ended without any progress on key issues. On the economic data front, monthly GDP is expected to ease in July, on the back of a slowdown in industrial activity due to a smaller gain in manufacturing production. Balance of trade, construction output and Halifax House price index will also be awaited.

Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB will decide on monetary policy and new staff projections will be released. No major changes in the current policy stance are expected but traders will carefully monitor President Christine Lagarde’s press conference, looking for clues on when more stimulus will be added through the pandemic emergency purchase programme; and comments on the Fed’s new average inflation target and recent euro strength. Other important releases include: the Eurozone final estimates of Q2 GDP growth and employment change; Germany balance of trade, industrial production and final inflation; France foreign trade and industrial activity; Italy retail sales and industrial output; Spain consumer confidence; and Switzerland and Turkey unemployment rate.

In Asia, all eyes will be on China’s trade balance with forecasts pointing to a rise in both exports and imports as more of its trading partners continued to reopen their economies. The country will also be publishing consumer and producer inflation. Consumer prices should slow while producer prices will probably decline at a softer pace.

It will be a busy week in Japan with the release of the final reading of Q2 GDP, current account, machinery orders, July’s preliminary reading of leading economic index, household spending, Eco Watchers Survey, and producer prices. Meanwhile in Australia, key data include Ai Group services index, NAB business confidence, Westpac consumer confidence and home loans.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: India industrial production; unemployment rate for South Korea and Malaysia; New Zealand business NZ PMI; trade balance for Taiwan and the Philippines; Indonesia consumer confidence; and Taiwan inflation rate. Malaysia’s central bank will also be deciding on monetary policy.

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