Week Ahead

US non-farm payrolls are seen rising by over 1 million in August and the jobless rate will likely fall below 10 percent for the first time since April.

Elsewhere, GDP data for Brazil, India, Australia and Turkey will be in the spotlight as well as worldwide manufacturing and services PMI surveys and monetary policy action by the RBA. Other releases include trade figures for the US and Canada, factory orders for the US and Germany, industrial output and retail sales for Japan and South Korea.

All eyes turn to the US jobs report on Friday, with markets predicting a payroll increase of 1.4 million in August, slowing from a rise of 1.8 million in July as the labor market recovery stalls amid a resurgence in new COVID-19 cases. At the same time, the unemployment rate is seen falling below 10 percent for the first time since it hit an all-time high of 14.7 percent back in April. Other notable publications are the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI surveys, foreign trade balance, factory orders, construction spending, ADP employment change, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, and the final readings of labor productivity and Markit PMIs.

Elsewhere in America, key data to follow include Canada employment figures, Ivey PMI, trade balance, Markit Manufacturing PMI, building permits and producer prices; Mexico business morale, auto production and Markit Manufacturing PMI; and Brazil second-quarter GDP figures, industrial output, foreign trade and Markit PMIs.

In the UK, final readings of Markit PMIs are expected to confirm further signs of a turnaround in private sector activity during August, with manufacturing production seen rising the most since February 2018 and the service sector output expanding the most for over six years; while a preliminary figure for Construction PMI should point to another month of strong expansion in construction activity. Bank of England’s monetary indicators, Nationwide housing prices and new car sales will also be in the spotlight.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone, Germany and France will publish their final estimates of Markit PMIs while many other countries such as Spain and Italy will release flash readings. In addition, key inflation and unemployment reports will be released for the Eurozone, Germany, Italy and Spain while several European countries will update Q2 GDP growth figures. Other data to follow include: Germany factory orders and retail sales; Ireland and Greece second-quarter GDP numbers; Switzerland inflation data and retail sales; Turkey second-quarter GDP, inflation and trade balance; and Russia consumer prices.

In China investors will turn their attention to August’s PMI updates from both the NBS and Caixin, with forecasts pointing to continued factory activity growth as the country recovers from the coronavirus crisis. In Japan, the Jibun Bank will be publishing its final PMI survey for August. Other important releases include industrial production, retail sales, unemployment rate, consumer confidence and housing starts.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will be holding its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, but no changes are expected while investors will be looking for clues of further monetary action. On the economic data front, second-quarter GDP will be in the spotlight with markets forecasting a record 6% contraction due to the COVID-19 pandemic; alongside CommBank final PMIs, Ai Group indexes for manufacturing and construction, trade balance, retail sales, building permits and private sector credit.

Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region include: India second-quarter GDP, infrastructure output and Markit PMIs; South Korea inflation, trade balance, industrial output, retail trade and Markit Manufacturing PMI; New Zealand building permits and ANZ business confidence; Thailand private consumption and investment, consumer confidence; and Indonesia and the Philippines inflation rates.

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