All eyes turn to the US employment report next week, which will probably show job growth accelerated in September, as well as worldwide services PMI surveys and an OPEC+ meeting that is expected to offer guidance into the coalition’s production plans. Elsewhere, key data to watch for include US foreign trade balance and factory orders; Eurozone retail trade; UK house prices; Australia business morale; and Japan household spending and current account. Central banks in Australia, New Zealand and India will be deciding on monetary policy.
The US jobs report will probably show a payroll increase of 500 thousand in September, after August’s smaller-than-expected rise of 235 thousand raised concerns about the pace of labor market recovery amid rising COVID-19 cases. Meanwhile, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI survey should point to another month of strong growth in the service sector during September, while investors will be paying special attention to any sign of growing inflationary pressure. Other notable publications are factory orders; ADP employment change; foreign trade; IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism; and the final readings of wholesale inventories and Markit Services PMI.
Elsewhere in America, key data to follow include Canada employment figures, trade balance, and Ivey PMI; and Brazil inflation rate, industrial output and retail sales; Mexico, Colombia and Chile consumer prices; and Argentina industrial production.
In Europe, key economic data to follow include the Eurozone retail sales and producer prices; Germany factory orders, industrial production and trade balance; France industrial output and foreign trade; Spain and Italy Markit Services PMI surveys; Switzerland inflation, retail trade and unemployment rate; and Turkey consumer and producer prices. Meanwhile, central banks in Poland, Romania Iceland and Serbia will be deciding on monetary policy. Meanwhile, it will be a soft week in the UK’s economic calendar, with investors eyeing the publication of Halifax house prices and Markit Construction PMI.
In the Asia-Pacific region, central banks in Australia, India and New Zealand will hold their monetary policy meetings, with RBNZ officials seen hiking interest rates by 25 bps. On the economic data front, important releases for Australia include business confidence, Ai Group construction and services indexes, trade balance, building permits, and the final readings of building permits and retail sales; while in India Markit Services PMIs will be in the spotlight. In Japan, important data to watch for include household spending, current account, Tokyo CPI, and leading indicators.
Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: South Korea inflation and current account; Thailand, Taiwan and the Philippines inflation rates; and Hong Kong IHS Markit PMI. Markets in China are closed for the Golden Week holiday until October 7th.
Investors will also follow an OPEC+ meeting at which major oil producers are likely to maintain a steady pace in raising supply, as crude prices hover three-year highs.