Week Ahead

ackson Hole symposium will take the spotlight next week, with investors looking for any signs of monetary policy changes and comments on the world’s economic recovery from central bankers. Key data to follow include in the US the second estimate Q2 GDP, durable goods orders and personal income and outlays; Canada and Germany Q2 GDP updates; Eurozone business survey; and China industrial profits. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea will be deciding on interest rates.

Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 8/23/2020 12:35:39 PM
Leaders from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks will be speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium, which will be virtual this year. Investors will be paying close attention to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on August 27th, who will probably deliver an update on the central bank’s long-awaited monetary policy framework review.

Meanwhile, the US will be publishing the second estimate of second-quarter GDP on Thursday, with market forecasts suggesting the economy contracted slightly less than initially thought. Preliminary figures showed the GDP shrank by an annualized 32.9 percent in the April to June period, the steepest pace of contraction on record, as the coronavirus pandemic forced many non-essential businesses including restaurants, cafes, stores and factories to close and people to stay at home, hurting consumer and business spending.

Durable goods orders are seen rising at a softer pace in July as the economic rebound loses momentum. Other notable publications include: personal income and outlays; PCE price index; new and pending home sales; Case-Shiller home prices; Chicago Fed National Activity Index; Chicago PMI; the advance estimates of goods trade balance and wholesale inventories; and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Other key data to watch for in America include Canada second-quarter GDP and current account; Mexico final second-quarter GDP, current account, trade balance and economic activity; and Brazil jobless rate and current account. The central bank of Mexico is also due to publish its monetary policy meeting minutes.

Across the Atlantic, the UK will publish CBI distributive trades and car production. Investors will also keep an eye on the Eurozone business survey and monetary indicators. Meanwhile, Germany’s final second-quarter GDP data will most likely confirm the bloc’s largest economy contracted the most on record. Also, both the Ifo business climate and the Gfk consumer confidence will probably point to an improvement in morale as the economy recovers from the pandemic hit.

Other key economic data include: France final second-quarter GDP figures, business and consumer morale, and the flash estimate of August’s inflation rate; Italy manufacturing and consumer sentiment, and factory orders; Spain retail trade and business confidence; Switzerland second-quarter GDP, KOF leading indicators and non-farm payrolls; Norway second-quarter GDP and unemployment.; and Turkey industry morale.

China will be publishing industrial profits, while investors in Japan will turn their attention to Tokyo inflation rate, all industry activity index, and June’s final reading of the leading economic index. The Bank of Korea will hold its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, but no changes are expected. On the economic data front, important releases include consumer and business confidence. Meanwhile in Australia, key data includes construction work done and private capital expenditure.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: New Zealand retail sales and trade balance; Taiwan industrial output, retail sales, jobless rate; Hong Kong and Malaysia trade numbers; Thailand and Vietnam foreign trade data and industrial output; and Singapore inflation and manufacturing production.