Week Ahead

The coming week will see second-quarter GDP data for the UK, Russia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, alongside industrial production for the US, China, Eurozone, UK and India and retail sales for the US and China. The labor market reports from the UK and Australia will also be in the spotlight, as well as inflation numbers for the US, China and India. Central banks in Mexico and New Zealand will be deciding on monetary policy.

The US retail sales and industrial production numbers for July are seen pointing to a slowdown in activity and trade growth amid a resurgence in COVID-19 cases. In addition, the preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment for August will likely show a slight deterioration in morale, while July’s inflation rate should recover further from May’s four-and-a-half-year low. Other important publications are JOLTs job openings, producer and foreign trade prices, second-quarter labor productivity and costs, business inventories and the government’s monthly budget statement.

Elsewhere in America, the central bank of Mexico will probably slash interest rates by 50 bps when it meets on Thursday, while policymakers in Peru are seen holding rates at a record low. Key data to follow include Canada manufacturing sales and housing starts; Mexico industrial output; Brazil retail sales; Peru monthly GDP figures and unemployment rate; and Argentina inflation rate.

The UK economic calendar is packed with preliminary estimates of second-quarter GDP data, alongside manufacturing and construction output, foreign trade and the latest jobs report. Britain’s GDP is seen contracting at a record pace in the April to June period as the economy was severely hit by the Covid-19 crisis while the jobless rate is expected to hit a two-year high.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone will publish the second estimate of second-quarter GDP, while the Netherlands, Poland and Russia are set to publish their flash estimates. The bloc’s economy entered a steep recession in the three months to June due to lockdowns imposed to contain the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. Other key economic data include: Eurozone industrial production and trade balance, Germany investor morale and wholesale prices; France second-quarter unemployment rate; Switzerland jobless rate and producer and import prices; Sweden and Ireland inflation rates; and Turkey unemployment rate, current account, industrial output and retail sales.

In Asia, China will be publishing July’s inflation data, with market forecasts suggesting consumer prices rose at a faster pace and producer prices decline slowed. Other important releases include industrial production, retail trade, fixed asset investment, foreign direct investment and house price index. Meanwhile in Japan, key data include current account, producer prices and tertiary industry index.

Investors in Australia will turn their attention to NAB business confidence, Westpac consumer confidence, wage price index and employment figures. Across the Tasman Sea, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, but no changes are expected in interest rates. On the economic data front, important releases include business NZ PMI and monthly food inflation.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: India industrial output, consumer and wholesale prices; South Korea unemployment rate; and Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan and Hong Kong second-quarter GDP updates.

Source: Trading Economics