Week Ahead

The US earnings season continues next week with about a quarter of S&P 500 companies reporting second-quarter results. On the economic data front, US non-farm payrolls are seen rising by over 2 million in July and the jobless rate will likely fall to 10.3 percent. Elsewhere, central bank policy meetings in the UK, India, Brazil, Australia and Thailand will be in the spotlight as well as worldwide manufacturing and services PMIs. Other releases include trade figures for the US and China and GDP data for Indonesia and the Philippines.

The US jobs report will be in the spotlight in the coming week, with markets predicting a payroll increase of 2.3 million in July, following a larger than expected 4.8 million rise in June; while the unemployment rate is seen falling to 10.3 percent, moving further away from an all-time high of 14.7 percent hit in April. Other notable publications are the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI surveys, foreign trade balance, factory orders, construction spending, ADP employment change, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, and the final readings of wholesale inventories and Markit PMIs.

The second-quarter earnings season continues next week, with a diverse group of companies reporting such as AIG, Activision Blizzard, Arista Networks, Ball Corp, Beyond Meat, Illumina, Liberty Global Class A, Roku Inc, Square, Walt Disney, Twilio, Uber and Virgin Galactic Holdings.

Elsewhere in America, key data to follow include Canada employment figures, Ivey PMI, trade balance and Markit Manufacturing PMI; Mexico inflation rate, business morale, auto production and Markit Manufacturing PMI; and Brazil inflation rate, industrial output, foreign trade and Markit PMIs. The central bank of Brazil will be deciding on interest rates when it meets on Wednesday.

In the UK, investors turn their attention to the Bank of England’s meeting at which policymakers are expected to keep rates on hold. On the economic data front, Halifax house prices, new car sales and the final figures of Markit PMIs will be in the spotlight.

Elsewhere in Europe, retail trade in the Euro Area is seen rising for a second straight month, recovering further from record slumps in April and March. Other key data include: Eurozone producer prices and final Markit PMIs; Germany factory orders, industrial output, foreign trade and current account; France trade data, industrial activity and Q2 payroll employment; Spain consumer confidence and unemployment change; Italy trade balance and industrial production; Turkey inflation rate and manufacturing PMI; and Switzerland manufacturing PMI, consumer survey and inflation rate.

In China, Markit will be releasing its Caixin PMIs for July, with forecasts pointing to a slight recovery in factory activity as the country emerges from the coronavirus shock. China’s trade balance will also be in the spotlight, with forecasts pointing a fall in exports and a rise in imports. Meanwhile Japan will be publishing the final estimate of the second-quarter GDP and the Jibun Bank will be releasing its final PMIs for July. Other important releases include Tokyo inflation rate, household spending and leading indicators.

The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of India will hold their monetary policy meetings, but no changes are expected. On the economic data front, important releases for Australia include trade balance, retail sales, Ai Group construction index, and home loans; while in India analysts will be waiting for Markit PMIs.

Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region includes: South Korea inflation and Markit manufacturing PMI; Indonesia and the Philippines Q2 GDP figures and inflation; New Zealand unemployment rate; and Taiwan trade balance and inflation data.

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