All eyes turn to the US employment report next week, which will probably add to signs of a gradual job recovery, as well as worldwide manufacturing PMI surveys and an OPEC+ meeting that is expected to offer guidance into the coalition’s production plans. Elsewhere, key data to watch for include US foreign trade balance and construction spending; UK Q1 GDP and current account updates; Eurozone inflation and business morale; Japan’s tankan survey, industrial production and retail sales; and Australia, India and Turkey foreign trade figures.
The US jobs report will probably show a payroll increase of 675 thousand in June, after a smaller-than-expected 559 thousand rise in May, as broader business reopenings continue to boost economic activity and demand for labor. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI survey should point to a strong pace of expansion in factory activity, not far from March’s 37-year high and despite the ongoing supply constraints. Other notable publications are foreign trade figures; construction spending; ADP employment change; pending home sales; Case-Shiller home prices; Chicago PMI; Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index; and the final reading of Markit Manufacturing PMI.
Elsewhere in America, key data to follow include Canada’s monthly GDP, trade balance, building permits and Markit Manufacturing PMI; Mexico foreign trade and business morale; and Brazil industrial output, unemployment rate, foreign trade and Markit Manufacturing PMI. Colombia’s central bank will probably leave interest rates at record-low levels when it meets on Monday.
Across the Atlantic, the UK will be publishing the final estimates of first-quarter GDP growth and Markit Manufacturing PMI, alongside business investment and current account, Bank of England’s monetary indicators, and Nationwide housing prices. Figures from the ONS are expected to confirm Britain’s economy contracted during the first quarter after two consecutive periods of expansion as household consumption and business investment declined following the reintroduction of coronavirus restrictions.
Elsewhere in Europe, preliminary inflation rates for the Eurozone, Germany, Italy, Spain and Switzerland will be in the spotlight, as well as unemployment data for the Eurozone, Germany and France. The consumer price inflation rate in the 19-nation currency bloc is likely to soften in June, easing from May’s two-and-a-half-year high and returning to the ECB’s target of just below 2%. Investors will also keep an eye on the Euro Area business survey; Germany retail sales and import prices; Spain and Italy Markit Manufacturing PMIs; France consumer confidence and household consumption; Switzerland KOF economic barometer and retail trade; and Turkey foreign trade.
In Asia, investor focus turns to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan business sentiment survey, which is set to show an improvement in Japanese big manufacturers’ confidence in the second quarter as the global economic recovery picks up. Data on industrial production, retail sales, unemployment rate, consumer confidence and housing starts will also be keenly watched. Elsewhere, China will be releasing June’s manufacturing PMI figures from both the NBS and Caixin, with forecasts pointing to a slowdown in factory activity growth likely due to material shortages and higher purchasing costs.
In Australia, key data to watch for include the Ai Group manufacturing index, trade balance, and home loans; while in India, the flash estimate of foreign trade, current account and the Markit Manufacturing PMI will be in the spotlight.
Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: South Korea inflation, industrial production, retail sales, trade balance and Markit Manufacturing PMI; New Zealand building permits; Hong Kong retail sales and trade balance; Thailand industrial production; and Indonesia inflation rate.
Investors will also follow an OPEC+ meeting on Thursday at which major oil producers are likely to boost the group’s collective output by some 500,000 barrels a day, as crude prices continue to recover strongly.