Week Ahead

The US earnings season continues next week, with companies such as Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, P&G, Pfizer, Gilead Sciences, Exxon Mobil and Chevron reporting their second-quarter results. Meanwhile, the Fed’s monetary policy meeting will be keenly watched as well as GDP data for the US, Eurozone, Hong Kong and Taiwan, and PMI survey for China. Other key economic data include US personal income and outlays and durable goods orders; Eurozone business survey and inflation; Japan consumer confidence, retail trade and industrial output; and Australia inflation data.

In the US, Fed officials are seen holding the target range for the federal funds rate at 0-0.25 percent at the end of their two-day meeting on Wednesday, with all eyes on Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for further details about future policy steps. On the economic data front, the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ GDP figures will probably show the US economy shrank by an annualized 34 percent during the secord quarter, the fastest pace of contraction on record, as lockdown measures imposed from mid-March to contain the rapid spread of the pandemic hit activity and demand. US states gradually lifted restrictions from early May, but were forced to pause or reverse reopening efforts amid a resurgence in COVID-19 cases. Other notable publications include: personal income and outlays; PCE price index; durable goods orders; second-quarter employment cost index; CB consumer confidence; pending home sales; Case-Shiller home prices; Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index; Chicago PMI; the advance estimates of goods trade balance and wholesale inventories, and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Investors will also be closely monitoring the busiest week of the earnings season, with focus turning to reports from big firms including Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, 3M, Spotify, Qualcomm, Pfizer, Gilead Sciences, Merck, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Procter & Gamble, General Electric, General Motors, Ford, Boeing, Starbucks, McDonald’s, Caterpillar, Mastercard, PayPal and Visa. Top US oil producers Exxon Mobil and Chevron will also report second-quarter financial results.

Elsewhere in America, important data to follow include Canada monthly GDP and producer prices; Mexico second-quarter GDP and trade balance; and Brazil jobless rate. Colombia’s central bank is seen cutting interest rates by 25 bps to new record lows.

Meanwhile, it is a soft week ahead on the UK economic calendar, with the Bank of England publishing its monetary indicators, the Nationwide Building Society releasing housing prices and the CBI issuing its distributive trades survey.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone’s flash second-quarter GDP data, alongside jobs report, preliminary inflation and business survey will provide a clue to how deep the coronavirus-induced recession will be for the region. The bloc’s economy is expected to fall at a record pace as a two-month coronavirus lockdown forced many non-essential businesses to close and consumers to stay at home. Other key economic data include: Germany Ifo business climate and retail sales; France consumer survey; Italy and Spain retail sales; Turkey business confidence, foreign trade and tourism revenues; and Switzerland KOF leading indicators and retail trade.

In China, the NBS will be releasing its manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for July with forecasts pointing to a further recovery in factory activity after hitting an all-time low in February amid the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile in Japan, key data include retail sales, consumer confidence, industrial production, unemployment rate and housing starts.

In Australia, investors will turn their attention to second-quarter inflation data, building permits, and private sector credit. Across the Tasman Sea, New Zealand will publish ANZ business confidence and building permits.

Other highlights for the Asia Pacific region include: Hong Kong and Taiwan second-quarter GDP; South Korea consumer and business confidence, retail sales, industrial output and trade balance; Malaysia trade; Singapore second-quarter unemployment rate; Thailand industrial production; and Vietnam trade balance, industrial output, inflation.

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