Flash PMI surveys for the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and Australia due next week will offer a first look at the state of the global economy in June, with investors paying close attention to any signs of a persistent surge in price pressures; while central banks in the UK, China, Philippines, Thailand and Mexico will be deciding on monetary policy. Other important releases to follow include US final Q1 GDP, durable goods orders and PCE data; Canada and Mexico retail sales; UK and EU consumer morale; and Australia retail sales.
Investors in the US will turn their attention to the June flash Markit PMI survey, with forecasts suggesting growth rates in both manufacturing and services sectors remained close to May’s all-time highs due to broader economic reopening and a labor market recovery. At the same time, durable goods orders likely rebounded in May from April’s decline, which was the first since May 2020; while personal income is seen falling for a second straight month and spending is seen rising at a slower pace.
Other notable publications include the final estimate of first-quarter GDP, alongside existing and new home sales, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, first-quarter current account, the advance estimates of goods trade balance and wholesale inventories, and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.
Elsewhere in America, important data to follow include Canada retail trade and the preliminary estimates of manufacturing and wholesale sales; Mexico interest rate decision, unemployment rate, retail sales and economic activity; Brazil consumer morale and current account; and Argentina first-quarter GDP, jobless data and current account.
Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England will probably leave monetary policy unchanged, with all eyes turning to the summary and minutes of the meeting for clues about policymakers’ views on inflation. In May, the central bank announced a slowdown in the pace of purchases of British government bonds and signaled it was on course to end emergency support later this year. Turning to the economic data calendar, flash Markit PMI numbers for June are likely to signal another month of solid growth rates in both factory activity and services output, following May’s record-breaking expansions. Investors will also keep an eye on Gfk consumer confidence, CBI industrial orders and distributive trades, and public sector net borrowing.
Elsewhere in Europe, flash Markit PMI data for the Eurozone, Germany and France will be in the spotlight, with forecasts suggesting the bloc’s factory activity growth remained strong after hitting a record high in each of the previous three months while the services sector expanded at a faster pace as member states continued their reopening efforts. Meanwhile, consumer confidence in the Euro Area likely improved for a fifth straight month to a three-and-a-half-year high in June. Elsewhere, consumer morale in Germany is due to climb to a seven-month high heading into July; while the Ifo business climate indicator should rise to the highest since April 2019. Other data to follow include: final estimates of first-quarter GDP data for Spain and the Netherlands; Switzerland current account; and France and Turkey business and consumer survey. Also, central banks in Hungary and the Czech Republic are expected to deliver their first post-pandemic interest rate hikes when they meet next week.
In Asia, the People’s Bank of China will provide an update to its new loan prime rate (LPR) on Monday, but no changes are expected. Meanwhile, investors in Japan turn their attention to the Jibun Bank’s flash PMI survey and Tokyo inflation; while Australia’s Markit PMIs and flash retail sales will also be keenly watched.
Other highlights include: South Korea consumer and business sentiment; New Zealand and Thailand trade balance figures; Malaysia inflation rate; Taiwan industrial production, export orders, retail sales and unemployment data; and South Africa consumer and producer prices. Central banks in Thailand and the Philippines will be deciding on interest rates.