Week Ahead

Second-quarter earnings season gets underway next week, with updates expected from major US health care companies and banks such as Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. At the same time, EU leaders will meet to discuss a common recovery plan, while central banks in the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia will be deciding on interest rates. On the economic data front, important releases to follow include US retail sales and industrial production; UK jobs report, monthly GDP and inflation; Eurozone industrial output; China Q2 GDP figures; Australia employment data, business and consumer morale; and India consumer and wholesale prices.

It will be a busy week in the US with retail sales and industrial production numbers for June pointing to another steep increase in both trade and activity as they continue to recover from April’s record slumps. In addition, the preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment for July will likely show a slight improvement in morale as the economy reopens, while June’s inflation rate is seen picking up from the previous month’s four-and-a-half-year low. Other important publications are housing starts and building permits, foreign trade prices, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, NAHB Housing Market Index, business inventories, overall net capital flows and the government’s monthly budget statement.

Meanwhile, the second-quarter earnings season will kick off next week, starting with reports from health care companies such as Johnson & Johnson and Abbott, banking giants including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Bank of America, and streaming video-on-demand service Netflix.

Elsewhere in America, the Bank of Canada will probably hold interest rates at current levels when it meets on Wednesday. Key data to follow include Canada manufacturing and wholesale sales, and ADP Employment Change; Peru monthly GDP figures; and Argentina inflation rate.

Across the Atlantic, the UK jobs report for the March-May period is expected to show an increase in the unemployment rate to the highest level in one and a half years amid the coronavirus pandemic, while wages should fall for the first time since 2014. Britain’s economic calendar is also packed with key updates on monthly GDP data, foreign trade, inflation rate and the GfK’s flash consumer confidence barometer for July.

Elsewhere in Europe, EU leaders will meet in Brussels to discuss the recovery plan to respond to the COVID-19 crisis and a new long-term EU budget. At the same time, the ECB will be deciding on monetary policy, but no changes are expected after President Christine Lagarde signaled the central bank may keep monetary policy unchanged for some time. Market watchers will also keep an eye on the Eurozone industrial output; Germany investor morale; Sweden inflation rate; and Turkey industrial activity and current account. Poland’s central bank will be deciding on interest rates.

In Asia, all eyes are on China’s second-quarter GDP figures, alongside industrial output, retail trade and fixed asset investment, with markets expecting a recovery from a record contraction in the previous three-month period following the easing of coronavirus lockdown restrictions. The country’s trade balance will also be in the spotlight, with forecasts pointing falls in both exports and imports. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will hold its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, but no changes are expected. On the economic data front, key releases include the tertiary industry index, Reuters Tankan index and the final reading of industrial production.

In Australia investors will turn their attention to employment figures, NAB business confidence and Westpac consumer confidence, while in India important releases include trade balance, consumer and producer prices. Markets expect a slowdown in both consumer inflation and producer deflation.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region are: New Zealand second-quarter inflation rate; Singapore second-quarter GDP and non-oil exports; Hong Kong business confidence; Malaysia and South Korea unemployment rates; and Indonesia trade balance and business confidence. Central banks in South Korea and Indonesia will provide an update on monetary policy.

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