Week Ahead

The coronavirus will continue to dominate the headlines as investors fear that a second wave of infections could delay the easing of restrictions in a number of countries.

Elsewhere, top negotiators from the EU and the UK will be meeting to discuss Brexit, while European finance ministers are set to debate the bloc’s budgetary situation. On the economic data front, important releases to follow include US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Germany factory output and orders, China inflation data, Japan machinery orders and India industrial output. Central bank meetings in Australia and Malaysia will also be keenly watched.

In the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI should signal a smaller decline in service activity during June as businesses restarted their operations following weeks of coronavirus-induced restrictions. At the same time, the weekly jobless claims report is expected to show that another 1.4 million workers filled for unemployment benefits, lifting the total reported since March 21st to over 50 million. Other notable publications are producer prices, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, JOLTs Job Openings, and the final readings of Markit Services PMI and wholesale inventories.

Elsewhere in America, key data to follow include Canada employment figures, Ivey PMI and housing starts; Mexico consumer prices; and Brazil inflation rate and retail sales. The central bank of Mexico is also due to publish its monetary policy meeting minutes.

Across the Atlantic, investors will be awaiting to hear about any new developments on Brexit talks, with discussions set to continue in London after divergences remained at the end of the last meeting. At the same time, European finance ministers will be meeting to discuss the budgetary situation and fiscal stance in the euro area as well as present the Commission’s summer interim forecast.

Meanwhile, the UK economic calendar will be light, with only the releases of Markit Construction PMI, Halifax house prices, final first-quarter labour productivity and new car sales scheduled. Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone retail sales are expected to rebound at a record pace in May, after suffering steep falls in March and April, following the lifting of coronavirus-related lockdown. In addition, industrial activity in Germany, France and Italy are also projected to surge by record rates. Other key economic data include: the Eurozone Markit Construction PMI; Germany foreign trade and factory orders; France trade balance; Spain consumer survey and industrial output; Italy retail trade; Switzerland and Turkey unemployment rates; and the Netherlands and Ireland inflation data.

China will be publishing consumer and producer price data for June, with markets seeing a slight increase in inflation from May’s 14-month low, while producer price deflation is set to ease. Investors in Japan will turn their attention to machinery orders, current account, producer prices, household spending, cash earnings and Eco Watchers survey.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will be holding its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, but no changes are expected. On the economic data front, important releases include Ai Group Services Index, home loans and ANZ job ads. Across the Tasman Sea, New Zealand will release updated figures for NZIER business confidence and capacity utilization as well as electronic retail card spending.

Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region include India industrial production; Hong Kong Markit PMI; Taiwan trade figures, consumer and wholesale prices; Malaysia industrial production; the Philippines inflation, industrial output and trade balance; and Indonesia consumer confidence and retail sales. Malaysia central bank will be deciding on monetary policy, with markets expecting a 25 bps cut to new record lows.

On the political front, Singapore’s general election is scheduled to be held on July 10th.

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