Week Ahead

Policymakers in the US and Japan will be deciding on monetary policy in the coming week, while minutes from central banks in Australia and India will also be in the spotlight. Other important releases to follow include US and China industrial output and retail sales; Canada and UK inflation data; Japan’s trade balance and inflation; Australia employment figures; and India consumer and wholesale prices.

The US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain an ultra-loose monetary stimulus at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, with all eyes turning to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for clues about the central bank’s latest view on inflation. Few policymakers have been urging the central bank to start debating how and when to start reducing its support for the economy, but others warned that inflationary pressures are temporary and substantial further progress towards the central bank’s employment and inflation goals is still needed. On the economic data front, notable publications are retail sales, industrial production, building permits and housing starts, producer and foreign trade prices, business inventories, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, NAHB Housing Market Index, and overall net capital flows.

Elsewhere in America, the central bank of Brazil will probably raise interest rates when it meets on Wednesday, aiming to bring inflation down. The country’s consumer prices rose in May by the most since September 2016. Meanwhile, key data to follow include Canada inflation rate, producer prices and housing data; Brazil business morale; Peru monthly GDP figures and unemployment rate; and Argentina consumer prices.

Across the Atlantic, Britain and the EU have failed to resolve a dispute over implementation of their post-Brexit trade deal in Northern Ireland, with each side accusing the other of bad faith. European Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic and British Brexit minister David Frost agreed to continue to try to find a solution before June 30 after talks collapsed this week ahead of the G7 summit.

Meanwhile, the UK economic calendar is packed with key updates on inflation data, retail sales, and labor market indicators. The country’s consumer prices likely rose 1.8 percent in May, the most since January 2020; while the unemployment rate likely dropped to 4.7 percent in the three months to April, moving further away from a four-year high of 5.1 percent hit in the October-December period.

Elsewhere in Europe, important releases include Eurozone industrial and construction output, trade balance and current account, first-quarter wage growth, and the final reading of May’s consumer price inflation; Germany producer prices; Spain and Switzerland foreign trade data; and Poland employment growth. Also, central banks in Switzerland, Norway and Turkey will be deciding on monetary policy.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy interest rate at minus 0.1% and the 10-year Japanese government bond yield target at around 0% at its policy meeting on June 17-18. Also, data to follow include foreign trade, inflation rate and machinery orders. Elsewhere, all eyes turn to China’s industrial production, retail sales, unemployment rate, fixed asset investment and house price index for May.

The Reserve Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of India will be releasing the minutes of their latest monetary policy meeting. On the economic data front, Australia’s employment figures for May and first-quarter house prices will be keenly watched, as well as India consumer and wholesale prices. Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: New Zealand first-quarter GDP and current account; Indonesia trade balance; and Hong Kong unemployment rate. Central banks in Indonesia and Taiwan will be deciding on interest rates.



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