Week Ahead

Next week the economic calendar is light and market activity is expected to drop as the Christmas holiday break begins. Key economic data to follow include third-quarter GDP updates from the US, UK, Netherlands and Spain; durable goods orders and personal income and outlays from the US; consumer morale from the EU and UK; and inflation rates from Japan and Malaysia. Central banks in China and Thailand will be deciding on monetary policy.

Stock markets in the US and Germany will be closed on December 24th, while in the UK and Canada, trading ends early on Christmas Eve.

Investors in the US will turn their attention to the personal income report, with forecasts suggesting income continued to rise at a steady pace in November while personal consumption expenditures likely slowed sharply amid the fastest inflation in decades. At the same time, durable goods orders should rebound firmly, following two consecutive months of contraction. Other notable publications include the final estimate of third-quarter GDP, alongside existing and new home sales, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, third-quarter current account, CB consumer confidence, and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Elsewhere in America, important data to follow include Canada retail sales, house prices and monthly GDP; Mexico unemployment rate, trade balance, retail sales and economic activity; Brazil current account and consumer morale; and Argentina jobless data, trade balance and current account.

Across the Atlantic, the UK will be publishing updated figures on third-quarter GDP, current account, consumer morale, the CBI gauges for factory orders and retail trade, and public finances.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Euro Area is releasing the preliminary reading of consumer confidence, which will probably show a deterioration in morale amid rising consumer prices and the threat of fresh restrictive measures due to the rapid spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant. Other key economic data include: Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Turkey consumer sentiment; Spain and the Netherlands final third-quarter GDP numbers; and Switzerland current account and trade balance. The central bank of the Czech Republic will be deciding on interest rates.

In the Asia-Pacific, the People’s Bank of China will provide an update to its new loan prime rate (LPR) on Monday, but no changes are expected. Meanwhile, investors in Japan turn their attention to inflation rate and housing starts; while Australia’s private sector credit will also be keenly watched.

Other highlights include: South Korea producer prices; New Zealand trade balance; Thailand interest rate decision and trade balance; Malaysia inflation rate; and Taiwan industrial output and unemployment data.



Categories: AEX/AMX