Week Ahead

Investors will closely monitor the spread and impact of the coronavirus pandemic as a spike in the US and China raised fears over a second wave of infections. Meanwhile, central bank policy meetings in China, Turkey, Mexico and New Zealand will be keenly watched as well as GDP data for the US. Elsewhere, flash PMI survey for the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and Australia will be on the spotlight. Other key data to follow include: US durable goods orders, existing and new home sales; and Eurozone, Germany and South Korea consumer morale.

The US will be publishing the final estimate of first-quarter GDP on Thursday. Early estimates suggested the economy shrank by an annualized 5.0 percent in the first three months of the year, the most since the last quarter of 2008, as several states were forced to impose lockdown measures from mid-March in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, durable goods orders in May are seen rebounding from the steepest fall in nearly six years the month before. Other notable publications include: flash Markit PMI survey; personal income and outlays; PCE price index; existing and new home sales; Chicago Fed National Activity Index; the advance estimates of goods trade balance and wholesale inventories; and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Other key data to watch for in America include Canada average weekly earnings; Mexico retail sales, economic activity and trade balance; Brazil current account and business morale; and Argentina first-quarter GDP figures and unemployment rate. The central bank of Mexico will be deciding on monetary policy on Thursday.

It will be a soft week in the UK, with investors looking ahead flash Markit PMIs, CBI industrial trends orders and distributive trades. Forecasts point to an improvement in both the manufacturing and the service sector despite remaining in contraction and overall weak.

Elsewhere in Europe, the ECB will publish the account of June’s policy meeting, while flash Markit PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany and France will be in the spotlight. The bloc’s manufacturing and service sector are seen contracting at a softer pace as the economies began to lift coronavirus-related restrictions. Also, the Eurozone flash consumer confidence, Germany Gfk consumer confidence and Ifo business climate are all set to rise to a 3-month high. Other key economic data include: Spain retail sales and producer prices; France jobless data and consumer and business morale; and Italy and Turkey business and consumer survey. In addition, the Central Bank of Turkey will be deciding on interest rates next week, with markets expecting a 25bps cut.

The People’s Bank of China will provide an update on its loan prime rate (LPR) on Monday, which was set at 3.85 percent on May 20th as the economy continues to battle the coronavirus crisis. On the economic data front, important releases include industrial profits. The Bank of Japan will publish the summary of opinions from its June meeting while the Jibun Bank will be releasing its flash PMIs.

Meanwhile in Australia investors will assess June’s flash PMI data for clues of a revival in economic activity as coronavirus restrictions eased. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will decide on monetary policy, but no changes are expected. Other important releases for New Zealand include: trade balance and ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence.

Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region include: South Korea consumer confidence; Thailand trade balance; Malaysia inflation; and Taiwan unemployment rate and industrial production. The Bank of Thailand will decide on interest rates.