Weak Ahead

It will be a busy week in the US with releases including the Q4 GDP growth rate, durable goods orders, the PCE price index, personal income and spending, and earnings reports. Also, flash PMI data for January will be published for the US, UK, Japan, and Euro Area countries. Investors will also follow BoC Interest Rate Decision, Germany IFO business climate and GFK consumer confidence, GDP growth rates for South Korea and the Philippines, and the inflation rate for Australia.

In the US the spotlight will be taken by a preliminary reading of the US Q4 GDP growth and the PCE price index. The US economy has likely grown an annualized 2.8% in the final quarter of 2022, slowing from a 3.2% percent expansion in the prior period. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is expected to have cooled further in December, following last month’s lower-than-anticipated CPI figures and producer prices decline. Still, core PCE inflation is seeing a rise of 0.2% over the previous month. Also, the durable goods orders are likely to rebound by 2.5% MoM in December fueling the debate on whether the world’s largest economy is heading toward a recession or is already in one. Additionally, investors will pay close attention to personal spending and income data, which are likely to show that tight financial conditions continue to curb spending. Next week also feature inflation expectations, the S&P Global PMIs, and new and pending home sales. Aside from the economic calendar, the US earnings season will kick into a higher gear as several big tech names report their quarterly results including Microsoft, IBM, Tesla, and Intel.

Elsewhere in America, the BoC is likely to raise its overnight rate by 25bps to 4.50% in its first meeting of 2023, pushing borrowing costs to the highest since 2007.

In Europe, the Eurozone flash S&P Global PMI survey will probably show the bloc’s private sector moved toward stabilization in January, helped by a rebound in the services sector and a softer contraction in the manufacturing sector. Also, consumer confidence in the Euro Area is set to rise to the highest level since February 2022, with the German GFK consumer indicator reaching a 6-month peak. The German Ifo business climate indicator most likely increased for the fourth month. Other data to keep an eye on include Spain preliminary Q4 GDP data and unemployment rate; France, Italy, and Turkey business and consumer survey; Sweden house price index; and Switzerland balance of trade.

In the United Kingdom, the flash PMI survey should point to the sixth consecutive month of contraction in factory activity. Also, fresh data will be released for CBI gauges for factory orders, business optimism, and retail trade, as well as public sector net borrowing.

In Japan, investors await minutes from the Bank of Japan’s latest monetary policy meeting, the Summary of Opinions for insights on the board’s decision to maintain the yield curve control unchanged, contrary to speculation, and the country’s flash PMI figures for January. Next, South Korea will publish GDP data for the fourth quarter and consumer and business confidence for January. Elsewhere, The Philippines will divulge fourth-quarter growth rates, and Thailand will decide on its monetary policy rate. The main Chinese financial markets and statistical offices will be closed due to New Year’s celebrations.

In Australia, a busy week of economic releases will be headlined by the inflation rate for the fourth quarter, NAB Business Confidence for December, and January’s flash PMI. In New Zealand, investors prepare the fourth-quarter inflation print.